This year has been fundamentally different for UK University admissions offices. The government introduced two major policies aimed at creating a market in higher education - both of which came into force this year.
First was the movement of funding from universities to individual students via the loan system. Universities increased fees up to £9,000 as part of this change, with the government hoping that this would drive up quality by making students consumers. Second the government removed AAB+ equivalent students from control limits allowing universities to recruit as many as they could - the hope being that this would further drive competition with market forces then shaping the HE landscape.
What has been the impact? Whilst this is a complex picture influenced by other factors such as the proportion of students getting predicated grades and A-level grade boundaries we do know that 32,000 fewer students obtained a non-clearing place through UCAS (a drop of c7.4%). We also know that as of the 10th September nearly 14,000 students had withdrawn from UCAS - an increase of nearly 15% on the previous year.
From speaking to applicants and students over recent weeks a number of trends do become clear. Irrespective of the loan system and support package (which is so attractive it is not sustainable) students have been put off by fees. The major reason students have given us for deferring or leaving UCAS has been financial concern. A significant number of these prospective students also cited the fact they had instead found work - again perhaps an indication of perceived value of higher education verses employment. Interestingly there is no clear evidence that price differentials have applied with students either being put off completely or applying based on where they wish to go and what they want to do.
We also know that many Universities are reporting a shortfall in recruitment and that these shortfalls are not confined to anyone mission group but across all types of institution. Certainly speaking to applicants, the only other significant group that were seeking release were those that were 'seeking to trade up' so indicating that a fledgling market had been instigated. What has been interesting is to see the full range of universities that have lost students to this market with many highly ranked institutions that expected to be cushioned from the changes having to reduce offers to meet target. Recent reports even have some 'elite' universities warning of shortfalls of up to 500 students for this academic year.
To some extent the Government will have achieved its goals. The HE sector will be smaller with fewer choosing to go to University. This will clearly benefit the Treasury and BIS given their concerns over the cost of the student loans system. There will be a market and reputation will be a key factor in perceptions of quality and desirability - - even if this does not impact on price at this stage it may in the future and if not will certainly influence viability of smaller institutions.
But what of social mobility and what is the impact overall on what is one of the most successful sectors in the UK ? The impact of these changes has clearly been significant. Historical trend data, which appeared to be following similar profiles to previous years until July, failed to provide the usual indications of performance - but anybody who at this stage says they understand these trends or the impact of the changes on the sector as a whole or on sections of society is either lying or naive.
Given the apparent scale of change it is unfortunate that the government did not heed advice about ensuring a thorough review of the impact of these changes before making further alterations for 2013. It appears the government has generated the market it desired and whilst this will impact on 'quality' I wonder if it will be in the way the government expects. I also question whether the aspirations of a generation were a cost worth paying?