John Curtice Won The General Election 2017 Battle Of The Pollsters Live On TV

Some heroes don't wear capes.
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Like night follows day, questions will be raised about the polling industry after it largely failed to get an election result right.

But there’s one pollster who can hold their head high: John Curtice.

Strathclyde University’s polling guru is the “frontman” behind the BBC team that calculated Britain was heading for a hung parliament as voting ended at 10pm on Thursday night.

The exit poll, commissioned by multiple broadcasters, triggered a political earthquake, with the tremors felt around the globe as the pound plummeted on the news.

The world held its breath: would the survey of voters at just 144 polling stations correctly predict the most seismic election result since ...... well, the last one? After all, most polls a day earlier were still eyeing a comfortable Tory victory.

On cue, the BBC camera sweeps majestically up to John Curtice, perched on the balcony like a medieval warlord, surveying the chaos below. pic.twitter.com/wi3xXJuBch

— Jack Murley (@jack_murley) June 8, 2017

The early signs were not good.

Results in the North East of England - university towns Newcastle and Sunderland - were not swinging to Labour as much as the exit poll suggested. Curtice was unfazed, suggesting it still showed the “direction of travel”. But still. Gulp!

Some in Lab putting that champers on ice.
Houghton + Sunderland result also suggests exit poll underestimated real Tory votes.

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) June 8, 2017

I'm told Lab HQ suddenly a bit quieter after those first two results in Newcastle and Sunderland.

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) June 8, 2017

Then, more drama.

Fellow pollster Peter Kellner suggested if the early mis-calculation was repeated across the country, Theresa May could be en route to Downing Street with plenty to spare.

“I would say if the exit poll is as wrong everywhere else than it is in the first two results, it could be 80, 100 majority,” said Kellner, the former boss of the YouGov pollster. “But if you dial it down, a majority of 30 or 40.”

Make no mistake, this is the pollster equivalent of a street fight.

Curtice, perhaps, showed the first sign of nerves. “Oh, a majority of 30 or 40 I think we still have to regard as potentially possible. Ah, 80 or 100 I think, shall we say, we would be seriously astray.”

WATCH EXCHANGE AT TOP OF STORY

It set Twitter alight. Well, among those who were awake. Mainly journalists.

Wow. Peter Kellner says that if the exit poll is as wrong as the first two results indicate, the Tories could be heading for a 100 majority.

— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) June 8, 2017

Forget Corbyn versus May. It's Curtice versus Kellner we all want to see. This is gold. Battle of the geeks.

— Tom McTague (@TomMcTague) June 8, 2017

Terrific Curtice/Kellner sub-plot on the BBC

— Sean Kemp (@Sean_Kemp) June 8, 2017

Curtice v Kellner. Rumble in the poll jungle. #ge2017

— Anthony Painter (@anthonypainter) June 8, 2017

But let’s remember, Curtice has been doing this kind of thing for 38 years, and got the shock 2015 Tory majority bang on too.

Finally, John Curtice is released from wherever they've been hiding him to explain the numbers he's been crunching#election92 pic.twitter.com/smnK3wLP4I

— BBC Parliament (@BBCParliament) April 8, 2017

As the hours went by, however, it was clear the internet’s best-loved psephologist was on the money once again.

"No more than that" - John Curtice shows how little chance he thinks Conservatives now have of overall majority https://t.co/YMVJP13SGk pic.twitter.com/fBAeQ8JnCg

— BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) June 9, 2017

And in the wee small hours ...

And by 06:12 the exit poll almost exactly matches the real results #curticeforpm pic.twitter.com/vFeEbvnvM0

— emily m (@maitlis) June 9, 2017

Victory.

The BBC’s election anchor, David Dimbleby, asked our hero whether “this is the moment where you will probably want to turn to John Curtice with a big pat on the back”.

“John Curtice is beaming with pleasure hearing that,” the veteran broadcaster mused.

John Curtice, beaming
John Curtice, beaming
BBC

“Well, I hope you found it useful and that it helped to inform your coverage during the course of the night, David,” responded Curtice, magnanimously.

“The crucial thing about the exit polls is not necessarily whether it is right or wrong, but it gives people a guide as to what the results might be.”

He then addressed the earlier tension. Before heaping praise on the “wonderful set of colleagues” behind the scenes, he said:

“You will remember that actually, very early in the night, it was not clear that it was right, because most of the results came in from the North East, particularly Newcastle and Sunderland, and the exit polls overestimated how Labour would do in that part of the world.

“But while that was going on, we were hearing all sorts of commentary about what was going on in seats further south, particularly crucial marginal seats. And it was fairly clear to us early on that we have got the broad picture right. And therefore hopefully it means that the programme started off on the right leg.”

WATCH THE FULL EXCHANGE BELOW

And the plaudits rolled in ...

"If this exit poll is right..." soundbites are now a distant memory. The team smashed it out of the ballpark *again*.

— Will Jennings (@drjennings) June 9, 2017

Real knockout victory of the election was Curtice vs Kellner. He came at the king. He missed.

— Robert Colvile (@rcolvile) June 9, 2017

Curtice: pic.twitter.com/62erH6oPMw

— Graeme Demianyk (@GraemeDemianyk) June 9, 2017
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