The Waugh Zone Friday May 24, 2019

The five things you need to know about politics today

Theresa May meets Sir Graham Brady this morning and the end really does look nigh. Senior ministers and others close to the PM (not always the same thing) expect her to give the chairman of the 1922 Committee what he and Tory backbenchers want: a clear timetable for her departure from Downing Street. The date of June 10 has been pencilled in (it’s not in biro yet) for her to step aside as Tory leader, while then continuing as PM until a replacement has been found, probably by summer recess in late July.

Political defenestrations are brutal, ugly events. May’s friends are braced for a day of stomach-churning ‘tributes’ as Tory MPs who have heaped vitriol on her and plotted to oust her, will ladle on the praise now that they know she’s going. Damian Green, the former ‘deputy PM’ who has known her since Oxford but was himself sacked in 2017, told the Today programme: “It’s ending. I think the overwhelming feeling I have today is sadness.”

What has been striking is the sheer lack of public Cabinet support for May since Brexiteer Cabinet ministers began their mutiny on Wednesday. Yesterday, digital minister Margot James was the only government member brave enough to lash out at the plotters: “She’s being hounded out of office because Parliament will not make a decision and the parties just have an inability to compromise. But in the end there’s got to be a compromise.”

May hasn’t done herself any favours of course with her obfuscation and opaqueness. It was telling yesterday that it took a junior whip, Mark Spencer, to announce the most significant, market-moving news on Brexit. His apparently innocuous line - “We will update the House on the publication and introduction of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill on our return from the Whitsun recess” - flatly contradicted May’s own pledge that the legislation would be published today.

It’s possible that the bill may be chopped up now and its non-contentious bits passed by MPs, not least to allow May to claim she has in part implemented her Brexit plan. But she was left in no doubt from her meetings with Jeremy Hunt and Sajid Javid yesterday that the bill in its current state could not get past Tory backbench opposition. Making the announcement today at least gives May the chance to deny Nigel Farage the satisfaction of saying it was his Euro election landslide that caused her downfall (the results aren’t known until Sunday).

Even some of her closest officials are unclear if May will have one last act of defiance this morning. She may prefer to set her departure date as the end of July rather than June 10, allowing a longer summer contest. It’s little consolation, but at least she will be able to get past Gordon Brown’s tenure in office (2 years, 319 days) early next week. If she remains in post to July, she will even surpass Neville Chamberlain. Yes, the ‘appeaser’ PM to whom she has been compared by some hardline Brexiteers in recent months.

The caravan very quickly moves on at Westminster and the next big issue on the agenda is just whether the next Tory leader will push for a no-deal exit from the EU. Lots of Brexiteers have been sharing a blog by the Institute for Government’s Maddy Thimont-Jack, in which she set out just how difficult it is for MPs to stop a no-deal Brexit if a new prime minister is determined to push for one.

There’s something heartening about a techie blog on Parliamentary procedure going ‘viral’ (alright, these things are relative) among politicos, and we had Maddy on our CommonsPeople podcast yesterday to chat it through. She makes a powerful case that MPs really now rely on Speaker Bercow trying to tear up convention to somehow let Parliament take control once more. I suspect Bercow will stay on as long as Brexit is unresolved, which is ironic given that was once May’s stance on her own tenure. Bercow is set to outlive three different PMs, and has a limpet-like ability to cling on to the office better than any of them.

Of course, with Boris Johnson the clear front-runner to replace May, many MPs now want clarity on his own stance on no-deal. If he goes soft, Dominic Raab will mop up defectors. If he pushes a hard line, it’s possible Jeremy Hunt (and, whisper it, Michael Gove) would pick up the large chunk of middle-of-the-road Tory backbenchers who think quitting the EU without a deal would trash their party’s reputation for a generation. Ken Clarke however put it neatly this morning on Today: “I don’t think Boris Johnson knows what is policy is on withdrawal from the European Union”.

Meanwhile, the Boris bandwagon motors on and picks up more passengers than ever. Gavin Williamson told his local paper the Express and Star that he was formally backing the ex-foreign secretary. “The bottom line is that the only person who can deliver Brexit and defeat Labour is Boris Johnson.” Williamson will be using his invaluable skills and contacts as former chief whip to mobilise support. More importantly, as one of the few Tories who is trusted by the DUP, he can try to mend that relationship as Johnson plots a renegotiation with Brussels on the dreaded ‘backstop’.

As I’ve said before, Johnson may well be looking at a further delay to get his new kind of Brexit. And Jean-Claude Juncker put his finger on it to CNN yesterday. “I am getting fed up because we are waiting for the next extension.” Of course, Juncker will be gone soon, but his other complaint won’t be: “What I don’t like in the British debate is it seems more important to replace the prime minister than to find an agreement among themselves.”

The PM posted on a rictus smile yesterday as she voted with husband Philip at their local polling station in Sonning, Berkshire. Even she must have known the tsunami was on its way. I may be wrong, but it feels to me like we could be heading for one of the highest UK turnouts for years for a set of European elections. Brexiteers and Remainers alike seemed out in force to ‘send a message’ to our politicians.

One of the key factors is that there was no chance to ‘split’ votes yesterday between an individual candidate and a party. With just one vote, the choice was simpler and more brutal. We’ll find out on Sunday night just how brutal for both the Tories and Labour.

We report on just how few Tories were bothering to campaign in the election. And one party in Norwich is understood to have actually passed a motion “saying they are not going to help in European elections”, according to a party source. Many eyes will be on East Midlands region on Sunday night to see whether Lib Dem Bill Newton-Dunn gets elected. He’s the guy Michael Heseltine said he was backing to boost the Remain cause, before he had the whip suspended.

One big issue yesterday was the multiple reports of EU citizens being turned away at polling stations thanks to admin blunders and delays. The Electoral Commission put out a particularly scathing comment, suggesting that the May government was to blame for the failures. “The very short notice from the government of the UK’s participation in these elections impacted on the time available for awareness of this process amongst citizens, and for citizens to complete the process.”

It’s Friday and everyone needs a neat nature video. Watch this sea otter produce some snacks from its ‘pockets’.

The milkshake ‘joke’ took a nastier turn yesterday. Police are investigating after an elderly army veteran was reportedly attacked with a milkshake outside a polling station in Aldershot. Images of Don Naughton, who served in the Parachute Regiment for two decades, circulated online showing the smartly-dressed 82-year-old with pink milkshake on his shirt and tie. Alastair Campbell faced a backlash of his own after doubting the veracity of the photo and claiming it had ’whiff of Bannon playbook”. His ratio said it all.

Proving that Labour’s leadership sees these Euro elections as a massive distraction from its general election preparations, the party has overnight has pledged to make the climate crisis a core element of the school curriculum from primary school onwards. The move comes in response to the school climate strikes, more of which take place today around the world, as promoted by Greta Thunberg.

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