September's UN General Assembly vote on Palestinian independence is turning into a minefield for embattled President Mahmoud Abbas. Already he is losing allies, outraged at the course he has chosen. The Israeli and American governments that backed him against Hamas- and kept him in power when he lost the 2006 election- are now fiercely attacking him.
For all that the Palestinian president will rightly fear the consequences of falling out with the Whitehouse- which would likely begin with a crippling loss of financial support- he should worry more about how he is perceived in Ramallah. His blueprint for Palestinian advancement is not widely shared. Ironically, in Abbas' most statesmanlike moment he has shown himself to be out of touch with the real patriot movement.
Since the dawn of the Arab Spring, a branch has been established in Ramallah that has spread to other towns and villages. A core of young, educated activists have been steadily gaining support through a strategy of nonviolent protest, advocacy work, and promoting the international boycott movement against Israel.
Palestine's youth movement are sick of the PA, which has opposed all their efforts and chosen to represent Palestinians alone in peace talks that have failed time and again. The worst suspicions about the 'peace process' were confirmed by the leaked Palestine Papers, which revealed a craven leadership prepared to sell historic rights cheaply.
Yasser Arafat famously told Bill Clinton that he could not sign away the right of return even if he had a gun to his head. The PA negotiating team were prepared to give it up and Jerusalem too, just to get the ball rolling.
In the six years since Arafat's death, negotiations have taken place to a backdrop of settlement expansion and the creeping annexation of Jerusalem. Grass-roots protests against these developments have been systematically suppressed by the PA, at the behest of Israel.
Despite the Authority's failure to deliver any gains, it was only after the perceived betrayal of the Palestine Papers that they faced serious pressure. Young Palestinians began to openly challenge their government's right to represent them.
A chasm has now emerged between the government and politicised youth. The PA has sought to crush them through arrests and harassment, as they have with other protest movements. It is not succeeding; the youth movement is riding the Arab Spring wave and rapidly gaining support.
The independence bid is proving unpopular not just because of the government's eroded legitimacy but also because it widely seen as misguided. Few still believe in the two-state solution now that borders are obsolete and half a million settlers are living in the notional Palestinian state, many in permanent towns. Leaders of the youth movement now seek a single bi-national state, throwing their lot in with the million Palestinian Arab-Israelis living across the Separation Barrier.
Abbas' appeal to the UN does not fit into any vision, looking more like a stunt disembodied from any strategy. Even if he succeeds, it would be a largely symbolic victory with no power to affect changes on the ground.
Dozens of nations have already recognised Palestine, and an official statement from 150 UN General Assembly members will not address the problems of Occupation or settlements. Worse, it may provoke a punishing response from Israel. Senior ministers are openly supporting a move to annex the West Bank, using the argument that the recognition bid would entitle Israel to take its own unilateral actions.
It is disappointing that the PA have been unable to harness the sources of improved PR for the Palestinian struggle. The non-violent protest movement has been growing for six years and has been attracting such high-profile supporters as ex-President Jimmy Carter and Archbishop Desmond Tutu. Today's youth movement are a continuation of this approach, and are benefitting from generally favourable coverage in the Western media.
The BDS movement has become increasingly potent and has been able to force increasing numbers of companies, academics and cultural figures to sever their links with the Jewish state. It has proved effective enough that the Israeli government has been forced to take the un-democratic step of banning boycotts.
Israel's military has been exposed to a new level of criticism following the bloody scandals of Operation Cast Lead and the 'Freedom Flotilla'. Both have damaged the IDF's standing as the "most moral army in the world", and reflected poorly on Israel's handling of the conflict.
Israeli ministers have also generated bad PR for themselves with aggressive public statements. Prime Minister Netanyahu's refusal to acknowledge 1967 borders in his recent speech to Congress looked hawkish and unreasonable. Every time Avigdor Lieberman or Danny Danon speak publically there is outcry from the left.
Mahmoud Abbas has decided that now is the time to test if goodwill has shifted enough to give him this victory. Having been hung out to dry by his American and Israeli partners through negotiations that never had a chance, he is taking the initiative in an effort to restore the credibility of his government.
It will likely do the opposite. The new generation of Palestinians who are tired of being led by the nose will not get behind a piece of gesture politics and another refusal to provide real representation. While the PA has made no progress since Arafat's death, the Palestinian cause has been advanced by grass-roots movements. The activists responsible for these gains will be dismayed that their president has decided that this is how such hard-won political capital will be spent.