Ed Miliband suffered a blow ahead of his leader's address to the Labour Party conference on Tuesday, after a poll revealed only two out of 10 people believe he has what it takes to be a good prime minister.
The ComRes survey for The Independent published today showed that only 22% of people thought Miliband would do a good job in No.10 compared to 39% who say David Cameron has.
Miliband is expected to deliver a speech in Manchester today described by aides as highly "personal", drawing on his immigrant roots and comprehensive education to outline reforms to the school system that will target the “forgotten 50%" who do not go to university.
"My school taught us a lot more than just how to pass exams: it taught people how to get on with each other, whoever they are and wherever they were from," he wil say.
"I will always be grateful, because I know I would not be standing here today as leader of the Labour Party without my comprehensive school education."
He will add: "We cannot succeed if we can have an education system which only works for half the country.
"We need to do what we haven’t done in decades: build a culture in our country where vocational qualifications are not seen as second class certificates but for what they can be - a real route on and up to quality apprenticeships and jobs."
Miliband will go on: "My parents’ came to Britain as immigrants, Jewish refugees from the Nazis. I would not be standing here today without the compassion and tolerance of our great country, Great Britain, a country that my parents saw rebuilt after the Second World War."
This time last year, on 27 September 2011, a similar poll to today's for The Independent showed just 24% of voters saw Miliband as a possible prime minister, compared to 57% who did not.
On that day Miliband delivered his "producer versus predator” capitalism speech which triggered a debate about which firms were moral and which were not - it was not a widely well received at the time.
In an updated biography of Miliband co-written by James Macintyre and The Huffington Post UK's political director, Mehdi Hasan, the Labour leader was said to be "dejected" by the negative reaction he had read in the press.
According to Hasan and Mayintyre, one adviser to a senior member of the shadow Cabinet was heard remarking to a nearby journalist: "That’s cost us the next election".
And one former cabinet minister is said to have thought Miliband's leadership of the party had been left "under threat" by the speech. "It looked like an Iain Duncan Smith position, where he wouldn’t quite be deposed. He would just be left for dead by the side of the road," they added.
However there were bright points, with Lib Dem Vince Cable reported to have text Miliband to tell him his speech had been "the most important social-democratic speech for forty years".
And Miliband appears to be in a much stronger position within his party one year on, with leadership mutterings reduced to a minimum, however he will still be under pressure to provide policy specifics and explain his theory of"pre-distribution"
While today's ComRes poll suggests Labour's seven-point lead over the Tories last month has dropped to just three points at 38% to 35%, this would still give Miliband a majority of 24 if repeated at a general election.