The 2012/13 La Liga season begins on Saturday after a turbulent week which has punctured any excitement for the new campaign and left many fearing for the future of the league beyond Real Madrid and Barcelona.
It all began with the announcement on Monday that Athletic Bilbao striker Fernando Llorente had decided to not renew his contract with the club and was likely to sign for Juventus. It was a huge blow for the Basque club, who had gained so many admirers for their heroics in the Europa League and Copa Del Rey last season, largely thanks to Llorente's goals.
Then on Tuesday the league's organising body, the LFP, held a meeting with representatives from all clubs in the top two divisions (not incuding Celta Vigo) at its headquarters after 13 clubs from the Primera Division had called for urgent reform in the area of television rights and the scheduling of matches. If changes were not made, they threatened to go on strike.
In the end, the meeting solved little. The 13 clubs were not even granted the actual conference they had asked for - they just wanted the 20 Liga clubs to attend - and at the end of the meeting the same problems remained: there is still a grossly unequal distribution of television rights which sees Barcelona and Real Madrid earn ten times what the smallest clubs earn, while one television company still owes a number of clubs millions of euros. One thing to come out of the meeting was that the two rival television companies ended up agreeing which matches they would broadcast for the next three years, but the problem is that the terms of the deal they struck are almost identical to the previous deal, and will have little bearing on how revenue is distributed among clubs.
Then on Wednesday news came through that Javi Martínez, another of Athletic Bilbao's best players, would be joining Bayern Munich for €40m, while on Friday morning it was reported that Real Betis midfielder Beñat would also be leaving Spain, to join Wolfsburg. The pair, plus Llorente, look set to join Santi Cazorla, Michu and Borja Valero in an exodus of brilliant footballers from La Liga, setting a dangerous trend whereby the best players in Spain either join Real Madrid or Barcelona or leave the country all together.
This exodus is not being offset by an influx of Europe's best players. Even Barcelona and Madrid seem to have tightened their purse strings as Spain's football clubs mirror their government by imposing deep spending cuts. At the time of writing the biggest signing by a Spanish club this summer is Jordi Alba, who moved from Valencia to Barcelona for €14m, while the total spending of the 20 clubs in La Liga is just €63.8m, compared to an estimated €253m spent in the Premiership. It is highly likely that Luka Modric will join Real Madrid next week, for around €30m, while it is also possible Alex Song will join Barcelona, for between €15-20m. Even if both transfers go through, the total spending on transfers in Spain will total just €110m. Last year it was €358m, in 2009 €444m. For many clubs, buying players is now a thing of the past. With only two weeks before the transfer window shuts, just four clubs have spent more than €9m - Barcelona, Real Madrid (assuming the Modric deal goes through), Valencia and Sevilla - while seven clubs are yet to purchase a single player: Deportivo, Espanyol, Málaga, Mallorca, Osasuna, Rayo Vallecano and Real Valladolid.
All signs point to another two-horse race this season. In 2011/12 Real Madrid reached 100 points, the biggest total in the league's history, while Barcelona accumulated 91 points - 30 more than nearest challenger Valencia. There is little hope of the hegemony of the two clubs ending this year. Valencia have sold one of their best players in Jordi Alba to Barcelona, while their biggest signings have been Real Madrid rejects Fernando Gago and Sergio Canales. Málaga, who last year finished fourth, now have a greater chance of being relegated than they do of repeating that feat this season after their billionaire owner suddenly stopped putting money into the club. Atlético Madrid, who came fifth last season after a spending spree of €70m, have spent just €1m this summer. One particularly attentive Twitter user recently pointed out that the only non-Barcelona players to score goals that took points off Real Madrid last season - Marcos Senna, Santi Cazorla and Arouna Koné - have now left the league. Although Real Madrid's 100-point total last season was unprecedented, it would be to the surprise of few people if they or Barcelona bettered it this season.
Reading all this, La Liga seems like a terribly predictable contest. But beyond the Big Two, it is a very exciting and unpredictable league, with the result of few games a foregone conclusion. On the last day of the season there were five teams that could have been relegated. One of them, Rayo Vallecano, were just two points off the Champions League in late February. In the end they survived by the skin of their teeth. Levante, who had the lowest budget of the 20 league teams last season, qualified for the Europa League. Villarreal, meanwhile, began last season in the Champions League but finished it in the relegation zone.
So as the new season awaits us, do not be put off by the dominance of Real Madrid and Barcelona. Yes, only two teams have a chance of winning the league, and probably the Copa Del Rey, but God knows what might happen to the other 18.
Predictions for season 2012/13
1 Real Madrid
2 Barcelona
3 Atlético Madrid
4 Valencia
5 Sevilla
6 Osasuna
Relegated: Rayo Vallecano, Celta Vigo, Granada