The 2016/17 summer crop production season started on a slightly positive note for Southern Africa's agricultural sector, after emerging from a devastating drought in the 2015/16 season. For South Africa, there are already promising indications that the country could retain its status as a net exporter of maize.
In the second week of 2017, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reiterated their view on South Africa's 2016/17 maize production, leaving their estimate unchanged at 13 million tons, which is a 65% year-on-year increase. So far, the lowest market estimate is 11.7 million tons. If South Africa manages to achieve a crop within this range, the country will regain its status as a net exporter of maize (as domestic maize consumption is around 10.5 million tons a year).
Unfortunately, the prospects of agricultural recovery are slim for other Southern African countries. Although the season started on a sound footing across the region, Zimbabwe and Zambia are currently battling with armyworm - pests of grass pastures and cereal crops. The outbreak of this pest started in Zambia towards the end of 2016 and continues to spread across the country's maize producing areas. At the time of writing, reports from Zambia's agricultural ministry estimated that 124,000 hectares of maize had been affected (out of a total of 1.4 million hectares planted this season).
The armyworm infestation has now spread to Zimbabwe, with the country's Commercial Farmers Union suggesting that seven of the eight maize producing provinces of Zimbabwe have already been affected. There are also reports that this pest is spreading to some regions of Malawi. So far, the extent of damage is unclear as governments and farmers in the aforementioned countries are actively applying control measures such as spraying, amongst other methods.
These regional developments are alarm bells for South Africa and we need to turn the spotlight on our preparedness to contain such outbreaks.
These regional developments are alarm bells for South Africa and we need to turn the spotlight on our preparedness to contain such outbreaks. Already, there are "unconfirmed" reports of armyworms in parts of Limpopo, Free State and North West provinces. The department of agriculture, forestry and fisheries needs to maintain scouting efforts and encourage farmers to report any cases of this notifiable pest.
With Southern African countries having emerged from drought, crop damage by armyworm will make grain imports from South Africa critical. According to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the average annual maize production of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is around 30 million tons. Over 80% of this is produced by just four countries, namely, South Africa with 42% share, followed by Tanzania with 18% share, Malawi with 12% share and Zambia with 9% share.
This means two of the key regional maize producers are at risk – Zambia and Malawi. Ideally, Tanzania and South Africa would have to supply the region with maize this season. However, Tanzania is typically a net importer of maize. In fact, the largest volume of maize exported by Tanzania in the past 15-years was 274 428 tons in 2014. About 81% of this went to Kenya. Therefore, South Africa could be the key supplier of maize to the region in the coming months.
Overall, the region's agricultural sector is not completely out of the woods. After a devastating drought season, armyworm could prove to be another disaster, if not controlled effectively. Currently, the extent of the damage is unclear, but South African traders and farmers should be aware of emerging regional demand and be better prepared to assist or trade.