Analysis: Tonight's Confidence Vote Will Not 'Draw A Line' Under The Tory Civil War

Mistrust in the prime minister is now too deep for the rebels to simply pack up and go away.
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Boris Johnson is now at the mercy of his own MPs
Owen Humphreys via PA Media

Boris Johnson, we are told by a Number 10 spokesperson, “welcomes the opportunity to make his case to MPs” ahead of tonight’s vote of no confidence in his leadership.

We can chalk that up as another lie to come out of Downing Street.

No prime minister, least of all one who craves popularity as much as this one, welcomes a make-or-break vote on their future midway through a parliament, or indeed at any time.

It signals to the country that you lead a party which is split from top to bottom and is also a massive distraction from the business of government.

But that is not the only misleading line to come out of No10 this morning. According to the Johnson mouthpiece “tonight is a chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on, delivering on the people’s priorities”. Yeah, good luck with that one.

For the avoidance of doubt, there is zero chance of tonight’s vote “drawing a line” under the civil war now engulfing the Conservatives. Mistrust of the prime minister is now so deep, and widespread, that even if he does prevail, he will be badly wounded.

“He’ll win but there will be a large vote against him,” one former cabinet minister told HuffPost UK this morning. At least 180 votes - half of all Tory MPs - would be needed to topple him, but anything north of 100 would still be a hammer blow to his authority.

And if, as expected, the Tories lose the by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton on June 23, the revolt against him will simply gather pace, as anxious MPs realise their own seats are in danger if Johnson remains at the helm.

The bad blood among MPs - as shown by Jesse Norman’s coruscating letter to Johnson this morning - can’t simply be washed away by the PM winning tonight’s vote. 

Theresa May, lest we forget, won a confidence vote in 2018 and was gone just seven months later.

This morning’s intervention by Jeremy Hunt - who Johnson beat to the top job in 2019 - is another important straw in the wind.

He tweeted: “Anyone who believes our country is stronger, fairer & more prosperous when led by Conservatives should reflect that the consequence of not changing will be to hand the country to others who do not share those values. Today’s decision is change or lose. I will be voting for change.”

Regardless of tonight’s result - and one frontbencher says it “might be closer than some expect” - the chances are that we are now in the latter part of Boris Johnson’s time in office. And he only has himself to blame for that.