It had been dubbed “Super Saturday” but today’s much-hyped parliamentary proceedings failed to live up to the name as MPs denied Boris Johnson a vote on his Brexit deal and forced him to ask for a delay to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
The passing of the so-called Letwin amendment triggers another bit of legislation - the Benn act - which means Johnson must now write a letter to the EU asking for an Article 50 extension to January 31.
But the PM has insisted: “I will not negotiate a delay”.
So WTF happens now?
Brexit delay
With the Benn act now triggered, Johnson was compelled by law to write to the EU requesting a Brexit delay by 11pm on Saturday night.
The PM vowed to comply with the law but not to negotiate a delay.
So how did he square that circle?
The prime minister got a senior diplomat to send Brussels an unsigned photocopy of the call by MPs to delay withdrawal from the bloc, with a cover note stressing his detachment from the move.
In a second note to European Council president Donald Tusk, the PM said a Brexit extension would be “deeply corrosive”.
On Sunday, ambassadors from the other 27 EU countries will meet and decide how to respond to any letter requesting a delay.
The EU could agree with the Benn act’s demand for an Article 50 extension until January 31.
Or it could decide to make the deadline sooner or later, which would trigger an MPs’ vote on whether to accept the EU offer.
But in reality whatever the EU proposes is likely to be approved, as MPs cannot direct European leaders towards another date.
Vote on the deal
The onus will then switch back to Johnson, who will still be hoping to deliver Brexit by October 31 by passing his deal through the Commons and Lords in time.
Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg said the government would try again to have a “meaningful vote” on Johnson’s Brexit deal on Monday but there is confusion over whether this will be allowed.
Commons Speaker John Bercow promised more clarity on Monday.
In any case Johnson still have to rush the withdrawal agreement bill (WAB), which will enshrine the deal in law, through parliament by Halloween if he wants to leave the EU by the October 31 deadline.
Given the lack of time, it seems likely the government will publish the WAB on Monday and bring it to the Commons for second reading - its first Commons stage - on Tuesday.
If the deal is voted down, all bets are off and we could be entering election or referendum territory - assuming there is a long enough delay to Brexit to allow a public vote to happen.
It the deal passes its first stage, there is still likely to be a huge battle over the timetable for it to be passed through parliament, as laid out in a government programme motion.
Just like the coalition’s failed House of Lords reform bill, it is perfectly possible that some MPs could support the deal at second reading but vote down, or amend, the programme motion because they object to it being rushed through by October 31.
Those MPs could join opposition parties in order to force a longer timetable, which would be the last nail in the coffin for Johnson’s pledge to leave the EU “do or die” by October 31.
Rebel alliance
A longer timetable could also mean more opportunity for amendments.
MPs could try and attach all sorts of bells, whistles and baubles to the deal - and therefore law.
Expect moves to make the deal subject to a second referendum and perhaps even attempts to tie Johnson’s hands in the second phase of negotiations with Brussels on a long term relationship, for example to ensure Britain remains in the EU customs union to protect the manufacturing industry.
MPs may also act to try and legally end fears that Johnson’s deal simply puts off a potential no-deal Brexit until the end of the transition period on December 31 2020, if phase two trade deal negotiations end with no agreement being reached.
But what about the Queen’s Speech vote?
There is another complicating factor.
The Queen’s Speech last week reopened parliament and set out the government’s legislative agenda.
A big vote on the entire package is due to fall on Tuesday, but because Johnson does not have a majority he faces the very real chance of defeat.
A defeat would suggest the government is unable to govern and Labour or the SNP would surely then follow it with a vote of no confidence in the PM - assuming a long enough Brexit delay has been secured to hold a general election.
If successful, that would also mean Johnson’s Brexit deal would fall away until after an election.
But the government can simply delay the Queen’s Speech vote until it has passed the WAB, which seems likely given its complicating factors.
So when is Brexit happening?
Wait and see. We might still have an election or second referendum. Or it could happen on time on October 31. Or it could happen a few days or weeks after Halloween.
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