Boris Johnson won the Tory leadership on a “do or die” pledge to take Britain out of the European Union at Halloween.
UK and EU negotiators are in so-called “tunnel” talks, and reports from Brussels suggest that a deal is indeed possible before an all-important EU Council meeting on Thursday.
But whatever happens next, the prime minister’s path is fraught with difficulty. Here’s what could happen and how the PM could deal with it.
A Deal Is Struck Now
Wahey! Problem solved and the UK leaves the bloc at Halloween, right? Wrong.
If Johnson is able to strike a withdrawal deal with the EU, there are still many hurdles to clear before Brexit.
Firstly, the deal will need the backing of a majority of MPs in the Commons.
Some Tory Brexiteers, such as Owen Paterson, have voiced concerns about the customs plan Johnson is pushing, and the DUP are sceptical about an effective regulatory border that could appear in the Irish Sea.
This means the numbers will be extremely tight, and Johnson could be forced to turn to Labour MPs.
But Jeremy Corbyn’s pro-Remain backbenchers are determined to extract a price for any support, as are the Lib Dems and some Tory Remainers. They will table an amendment to Johnson’s Brexit deal to force a confirmatory ballot, which would give the public a vote.
The deal also has to win the unanimous agreement of the European Parliament, which is not a given.
Talks End Without A Deal
Politically, this is arguably the worst outcome for the prime minister.
Despite all of his rhetoric on the UK being prepared to leave the EU without a deal, few believe he actually favours this, given the gridlock, risks to supplies of food and medicine and the drastic hit to the economy it would precipitate.
Setting the potential horrors of no-deal aside, it would also be illegal for Johnson to preside over an October 31 no-deal exit.
The anti-no-deal law passed by MPs earlier this year – known as the Hilary Benn Act – kicks in on Saturday, October 19.
It states that if no deal is struck at the European Council meeting this week, then Johnson must seek an extension to the Article 50 deadline.
Not only would this hit the Tories’ election prospects, as it would be a huge boost to Nigel Farage’s Brexit party whose central policy is a no-deal exit at Halloween, France is among the countries who are sceptical about handing the UK any further extension, meaning his request could be denied.
If talks fail, Johnson may also have little control over how long the extension would be – something which would enrage the Tory Brexiteers who drove Theresa May from office.
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A joint statement said the two leaders could “see a pathway to a possible deal”, but since tunnel negotiations reopened, many in Brussels have remarked that the PM has left it late in the day to table new proposals.
While there is said to be goodwill among EU leaders, it is thought a short, technical extension could be needed to translate talks into legal text and to iron out the details.
While Tory Brexiteers who support the PM are said to be softening on the hard October 31 deadline, it will nonetheless squander some of Johnson’s political capital to extend.
Eurosceptics, such as Bill Cash and Iain Duncan Smith, were furious when May chose to extend Article 50, claiming it handed Brussels more control.
Such a move would also strengthen the argument advanced by proponents of a second referendum that the 2016 mandate for Brexit is weakening and that the public should have a say.
So whether or not there is a deal, Johnson’s premiership is set to face its biggest test to date, and how he responds will define what happens next.