Experts have generally given up trying to forecast what might happen in the coming weeks – whether it will be no-deal, that deal, another deal, or even no Brexit at all. But what is clear, is that the noisy debates and furious polemic have largely ignored one key issue – human rights.
True, the opening lines of the ‘core values’ in the current Political Declaration between the UK and EU refer to mutual “respect for and safeguarding of human rights and fundamental freedoms” as shared values underpinning the future relationship. But if you then search for those words elsewhere, you’ll find very little comfort. Rather than a commitment to ongoing membership of the European Convention on Human Rights, the government appears to have negotiated instead a far weaker promise that the UK will merely ‘respect the framework’. Ambiguous.
Indeed, the UK Government’s entire approach to Brexit so far has been indicative of a similarly vague dedication to the ongoing rights of ordinary people in the UK.
As part of its “copy and paste” of the entirety of EU law into domestic law through the EU (Withdrawal) Act, the government made the troubling and entirely unnecessary decision to leave the EU’s rights laws (and only rights laws) on the cutting room floor. That means that unless something changes soon, once any deal is passed and the UK leaves, rights protections in the UK will be significantly reduced. And to some extent, that’s still the least worst case scenario.
Moreover, the government will of course be free to legislate contrary to previously protected rights, should it decide to do so. That’s because it has even given itself the power to amend primary legislation through secondary legislation (the so-called ‘Henry VIII’ powers) and those could be used to amend the Equalities Act or other important EU-related legislation touching on rights and equalities protections.
An attempt by the Lords to amend those powers failed to pass the Commons. These changes will thus kick in after any deal, and the Henry VIII powers are already being deployed, with Amnesty, among others, poised to attempt to spot any negative effects on rights amid the 100s of statutory instruments needed to detangle the Brexit fall-out.
As to the increasingly real prospect of no-deal, there has been little if any analysis of what that could mean for human rights in the UK. There have been those who point to the Northern Irish border, and the likely negative impact on the rights currently enjoyed there, should there be a hard border, not to mention the potential damage to the Good Friday Agreement and the peace it protects.
There has also been limited attention given to the impact on the rights of the 3.8million EU citizens in the UK, and of the one million plus UK citizens currently living in the EU. Some have even suggested the possibility of significant hardships or shortages in the UK as a result of no deal - the kind of harm to life and dignity that rights laws are designed to protect against.
These are all, as Donald Rumsfeld would have said, known unknowns. Yet uncertainty prevails.
As the UK steps into the vast unknown, and the way of doing so remains unknown, it’s extraordinarily difficult to predict what the impact might be on rights.
Even in the tense discussions between the Prime Minister and the Labour Party about enhanced protections for workers’ rights and the environment, there was a distinct absence in the public discussion about reinstating the Charter of Fundamental Rights, despite the fact that its protection was once one of Labour’s six ‘Brexit tests’.
Amnesty does not take any position on Brexit – leave or remain, deal or no-deal – but we have fought to try to protect human rights across the board in the Brexit process, seeking positive changes to the few Brexit implementation bills seen so far and calling for the retention of existing rights laws.
As time marches on relentlessly, politicians are running out of time to ensure that ordinary people are not left more vulnerable.
What we do know is that the majority of the UK population share a concern about the impact Brexit could have on rights. No one voted to reduce their own protections. A survey Amnesty did with YouGov last year found that, of those who responded, 75% of the population overall – and 57% of Leave voters – would be concerned if they were left with fewer rights after the UK exits. Yet where is the political cavalry to defend those protections?
If the way ahead seems impassably difficult, we would urge all MPs and the government to coalesce around putting human rights protections at the heart of a vision for this country’s future. There is a clear majority in favour of that. In times of such vast uncertainty, we’d all do well to stockpile basic rights protections for the whatever comes next.
Kate Allen is director of Amnesty UK