There are now just 30 days to go until the UK is supposed to leave the EU. This is what happens between now and then. Probably.
February 27
On Wednesday MPs will have a chance to vote on what they want the next steps in the Brexit talks to be. The Commons showdown had been billed as the moment parliament would take back control of Brexit from the government, delay the UK’s departure from the EU and block a no-deal exit on March 29.
But Theresa May, true to form, has successfully kicked that can down the road by promising votes next month on blocking no-deal and extending Article 50.
There are however a few things to watch out for later today when the Commons votes.
There is a cross-party move to force the government to hold indicative votes on the UK’s future relationship with Europe.
MPs could also be asked to vote specifically to endorse the prime minister’s plan for a series of votes on her deal next month.
Labour plans to table an amendment that asks MPs to support its plan for Brexit, which includes a permanent customs union with the EU. This will be rejected. But Jeremy Corbyn has said if and when that happens he will throw Labour’s weight behind supporting a referendum on May’s Brexit deal. The move has delighted pro-EU Labour MPs, but infuriated those who worry it will alienate Leave voters.
The Independent Group (TIG) will also add to the pressure on Corbyn to back a referendum. The breakaway gang of pro-EU MPs have tabled an amendment, supported by the SNP and Lib Dems, demanding the government start preparing for a public vote.
The other amendment to keep an eye on has been tabled by Tory MP Alberto Costa. He wants MPs to vote to guarantee the rights EU citizens no matter what form Brexit takes. It has the support of Labour as well as pro-EU and pro-Brexit Tory backbenchers.
March 12
Mid-March is now crunch time. The prime minister has said she will finally give MPs their second meaningful vote on whether to accept or reject her revised Brexit deal by March 12 - just 16 days before the UK is due to leave the EU.
March 13
At the moment it seems highly likely MPs will once again reject May’s deal, even if she has secured some further commitments from the EU that the Northern Ireland backstop will not last forever.
If parliament votes the deal down, MPs will be given an opportunity by March 13 to vote in favour or against a no-deal Brexit. It is widely expected that there is no chance the Commons would vote for the UK to leave the EU without an agreement.
May only avoided a mass rebellion by pro-EU Tory ministers today by promising they would have the chance to vote against no-deal in March.
“The United Kingdom will only leave without a deal on 29 March if there is explicit consent in this House for that outcome,” the PM told MPs on Tuesday.
March 14
If MPs also reject a no-deal Brexit as expected, the Commons will vote by March 14 on whether to ask the EU for a extension to Article 50. May refused to say how long an extension she would agree to, but said it would be “short” and “limited”. There have been reports Brussels would prefer a 21-month extension to one of a few months. But Tory Brexiteers would be highly unlikely to be able to stomach a delay of more than a couple of months.
May refused to say whether she would whip Tory MPs to vote for or against a no-deal, or for or against an extension. But the ministers who were on the verge of rebellion this week would undoubtably break ranks to oppose no-deal and back an extension even if ordered not to.
March 29
If MPs approve May’s Brexit deal on March 12, the UK will leave the EU on those terms on March 29 at 11pm as planned.
If MPs have voted against her deal, but voted in favour of no-deal, then the UK will leave the EU on March 29 at 11pm without an agreement.
If MPs have voted to extend Article 50, and the EU agrees, then the UK will not be leaving on this date.
Then what
Pro-Brexit Tories do not want an extension. But short of reversing Brexit entirely, the only way to avoid a no-deal exit is to agree a deal. And if no deal can be agreed during a short extension, the UK could still be on course to leave without one, just a few months later than originally intended.