“It’s going to be a historic week in parliament”... They’re words that have been bandied about again and again in recent months as the Brexit clock ticks down to March 29.
But with just 17 days to go until Brexit (yes, really), the decisions MP take this week really will go down in the history books as the votes which ultimately determined the UK’s exit from the European Union.
Not only does Theresa May face a second meaningful vote on her Brexit deal – which could end in another crippling defeat for the prime minister – but the outcome of that ballot could spark a series of votes which could dramatically change Britain’s exit from the EU.
On top of that, talks between the PM and EU negotiators remain deadlocked over the Northern Ireland backstop – which Theresa May has been trying to seek changes to in a bid to appease her Brexiteer MPs.
There had been no further agreement reached after a weekend of negotiations with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, Downing Street admitted on Sunday evening – with talks due to resume on Monday morning.
Confused about how its all going to actually happen though? Fear not – we’ve got your back. Here’s HuffPost UK’s day-by-day guide to how this week in Westminster will go down.
Tuesday
There’s plenty scheduled for parliament on Monday, and the PM will be continuing her aforementioned wrangling, but Tuesday is when the Brexit action really kicks off.
Less than two months after MPs delivered May the heaviest parliamentary defeat of any PM in history over her Brexit deal (a crushing 432 votes to 202), politicians will have another chance to have their say on her plan to leave the EU.
May last night made a dramatic dash to Strasbourg to seek concessions from Brussels chief Jean-Claude Juncker to help win over her party. She returned from the UK just hours later with fresh ‘guarantees’ aimed at wooing hardline Tory Eurosceptics.
Speaking at a press conference at midnight Strasbourg time, May admitted her previous deal “was not strong enough”.
“Today we have secured legal changes. Now is the time to come together to back this improved Brexit deal and deliver on the instruction of the British people,” she said.
But with negotiations with the EU over the controversial Northern Ireland backstop at an impasse and Labour accusing May of asking MPs to vote on “exactly the same deal” as they did in January, politicos are pretty certain the second meaningful vote will have the same outcome as the first – a serious loss for the government.
But what does that mean for the rest of the week?
Wednesday
If May’s deal is defeated by MPs, the prime minister has promised that they will have the chance to vote on whether a no-deal Brexit should be taken off the table. This is expected to take place on Wednesday – just over two weeks until Brexit day. (Nothing like leaving it to the last minute, eh Theresa?)
Given the huge impact crashing out of the EU could have on the UK, MPs are expected to come out in force to reject no-deal, with ardent Brexiteers such as the European Research Group (led by Jacob Rees-Mogg) likely to be a notable exception.
But there are two big things to look out for. Firstly, will the Conservative Party whip its MPs to vote for or against no-deal? Forcing Tory politicians to vote either way is likely to cause serious drama, including ministerial resignations.
Secondly – if there’s a free vote for Tories, how will May vote? Will the prime minister back taking a potentially-disastrous no-deal Brexit off the table, or will she vote to keep leaving the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms an option?
The latter would likely be seen as a show of defiance by the prime minister, a signal to the EU that the UK still has power in the negotiations.
If that wasn’t enough drama for one day, chancellor Philip Hammond will also deliver the Spring Statement on Wednesday. While it doesn’t have the same heft as the Autumn Budget, all eyes will be on so-called ‘Spreadsheet Phil’ as he delivers the update on government finances.
Thursday
Still following? Good – because another huge vote could take place in parliament on Thursday.
If MPs eliminate the option of a no-deal Brexit, they will then be asked to vote on delaying Brexit day (originally set to take place on March 29).
The ballot will be the hardest of the week by far to call. Open to amendments by MPs, it’s not clear year how long Brexit could be delayed for.
While May has said any extension of Article 50 should be a one-off “short, limited extension”, anything could happen.
So buckle in folks – if nothing else, it’s guaranteed to be a hell of a week.