What a difference a fortnight makes. Exactly two weeks after a crushing 230-defeat for her Brexit plans, Theresa May squeaked a majority of 16 for a possible way out of the Parliamentary deadlock.
The relief on the faces of her No.10 aides was palpable. “We actually won some votes,” one insider said. Chief Whip Julian Smith messaged backbenchers to thank them for their help “on this historic night”.
But has she really snatched victory from the jaws of defeat? Well, the overwhelming lesson of the night was a simple one: divided political parties lose, and united ones win.
May put Tory unity first. In wooing her hardline Brexiteers, she ensured that just two members of the European Research Group (ERG) abstained (John Redwood and Christopher Chope) on the Brady amendment.
In contrast, 14 Labour MPs voted against the Yvette Cooper amendment and seven voted for the Brady plan. Some 11 abstained, including some frontbenchers who were set to be disciplined for breaking the Labour whip.
Yet in many ways all that May has won tonight is an extra two weeks in No.10. She said she would come back to the Commons with another ‘meaningful vote’ by February 14 at the latest.
Her real difficulty remains her Eurosceptics. The ERG put her on notice that its support was conditional, with Steve Baker said tonight was “a vote to see if the PM can land a deal that will work - if not then we are not committed”.
And the Brady plan is so vaguely worded that it’s perfectly possible the EU will not only refuse to renegotiate the Northern Irish backstop, it could offer changes that really aren’t ‘legally binding’ for the DUP or Tory MPs.
May has pledged to allow another set of votes on Valentine’s Day. If the Brady proposals prove to be the ‘fantasy’ that critics claim, her new love affair with the Brexiteers could prove a very brief encounter indeed.
Cooper vowed tonight to try again with her no-deal plan, aware that next time up to 40 ministers could back her and tip the scale her way. Backers of a Norway-style plan are keeping their powder dry too.
We may well go over this whole set of votes again in the elusive search for what the EU wants - a ‘stable’ Commons majority. Groundhog May is a movie itself stuck on repeat. And it ain’t over yet.