Theresa May is hoping it will be third time lucky for her beleaguered Brexit deal when she brings it back to the Commons for yet another meaningful vote next week.
The prime minister has already suffered two historic defeats on the withdrawal agreement thrashed out with the EU, but somehow it is still alive – even if it’s on life support.
And after a mammoth week of Commons votes on everything from a no-deal Brexit to a second referendum, she will bring it back for another go – most likely on Tuesday.
Can the PM mount an incredible comeback? We spoke to insiders to find out.
The DUP hold the key
One senior Tory Leaver, who has his finger on the pulse of the party, told HuffPost UK the government’s confidence and supply partners’ backing would be “absolutely key” in winning over Brexiteers.
The MP suggested it would be strange for Tories to remain concerned about the controversial Irish backstop’s impact on Northern Ireland’s place in the union if the province’s main unionist party was now satisfied with it.
But Tories are also self-interested, the MP suggested, pointing out that the DUP could terminate the deal that is keeping May’s government afloat if she gets the deal through without their support.
“If we were to get it through with the DUP voting against it then we would have a very unhappy partner that might not be a reliable support,” he said.
However, one member of the Tory European Research Group (ERG) of hardline Brexiteers warned there would be “enough” MPs to block the deal even if the DUP switched.
“The PM cannot keep bringing back the same deal and hoping to getting it through,” they said.
“A handful of colleagues may peel off, but nowhere near enough for her to get her plan through.
“Roll on meaningful vote four. She needs another plan.”
So can they be persuaded?
Chancellor Philip Hammond, May’s de facto deputy David Lidington, environment secretary Michael Gove and chief whip Julian Smith are all involved in “ongoing and significant” discussions with the DUP.
Attorney general Geoffrey Cox is also moving to update his legal advice to try and convince MPs that the UK can leave the backstop of its own accord under certain circumstances, pointing to the Vienna Convention – effectively a treaty that lays down the rules about treaties.
But this has received a cold response from the ERG and DUP’s “star chamber” of legally trained MPs, who described Cox’s approach as “erroneous” and “badly misconceived”.
The senior Tory MP, however, suggested the promise of giving Stormont – the Northern Irish parliament – a veto on any adopting new EU laws if Britain falls into the backstop “might give some assurance”.
Ministers are also discussing other domestic reforms with the DUP, while “the pure reality of the situation and the concern we might end up in a long delay” could also get them over the line, one source said.
The chancellor’s presence in negotiations has also raised suspicions the government could put cash on the table for Northern Ireland, on top of the £1bn that secured the confidence and supply deal, but was criticised as a “bribe”.
Big name Brexiteer switchers
Former Brexit secretary David Davis, who quit over May’s handling of the EU withdrawal, surprised many observers last week by switching to backing her deal.
Sir Graham Brady, the powerful chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers, also changed sides.
And each high-profile Brexiteer switcher is likely to bring more Tory MPs with them.
Former cabinet minister Esther McVey’s suggestion on Friday that she could come round to supporting the PM will also be cheered in Downing Street.
She told BBC Radio 4′s Political Thinking podcast: “The element now is that people will have to take a bad deal rather than no deal.”
What about Labour?
Even if the DUP and a significant number of Tory Brexiteers switch sides, May will still need more than the three Labour votes she got last week to cancel out a bloc of implacable hardline ERG MPs thought to number around 20.
According to one Labour source close to Brexit-backing MPs, 20-25 of the party’s MPs are ready to support the deal if they think it has a prospect of passing the Commons.
This week Stephen Kinnock told HuffPost’s Commons People podcast Labour MPs “in the tens” are ready to move, but do not want to waste a rebellion if they think it will be pointless and the deal will be rejected anyway.
The senior Tory agreed: “The way I see it, this is something likely to be won relatively comfortably or not at all, because at the point that it looks like winning I think there are quite a lot of Labour members likely to join us.
“There was one I was talking to the other day just after the withdrawal agreement vote, who isn’t one of the known people thinking of coming over, but I said ‘I still think we might get the agreement through next week’, and she just said ‘please god’.
“There are quite a lot of them who now recognise this isn’t a great situation for any of us, and especially for those who are in Leave-voting constituencies who want to demonstrate they voted for it.
“Some of them will turn up on the night and just happen to slip into that lobby – they don’t necessarily have to flag the fact they are going to vote against the Labour whip.”
Get set for round three, everyone.