Coronavirus infections have decreased in every region of England for the first time during the second wave of the virus, the latest NHS data shows.
And those areas that were put under the toughest tier 4 restrictions in December are seeing bigger drops than those who remained in tier 3 until the national lockdown was introduced on January 5.
The most recent seven-day rolling average is down by as much as a third in the east of England and just slightly less in the south-east and London – all areas where Christmas bubbles were cancelled.
The smallest drop is the in the north-west, where cases have reduced by 5%, though they continue to rise in Liverpool and the surrounding areas which remained in tier 3 until January 5.
These most recent figures are for the seven-day rolling average up to January 11, and the decrease is a comparison with the seven-day rolling average to the previous day.
The number in brackets is the number of cases per 100,000 people. For context, the government’s own threshold for quarantining overseas travellers is 20 cases per 100,000 people – meaning these figures are still extremely high even if they have slightly fallen.
Change in cases by region
- East of England -34% (567.3 cases per 100,000 people)
- South East -31% (535.2)
- London -29% (788.0)
- North East -29% (336.6)
- East Midlands -16% (396.5)
- Yorkshire and The Humber -14% (285.5)
- West Midlands -13% (542.6)
- South West -12% (338.7)
- North West -5% (554.5)
Breaking the regions down further, just 12 of the 151 areas listed on the NHS dashboard have experienced an increase in cases and at much lower rates than earlier in the month.
Of the 12 areas, the top seven are areas that were put into tier 3 rather than tier 4 restrictions on New Year’s Day.
Areas where cases have risen
- Plymouth 26% (286.9 cases per 100,000 people)
- Torbay 25% (232.6
- Knowsley 14% (1,279.3)
- St Helens 13% (773.6)
- Sefton 11% (966.0)
- Bath and North East Somerset 9% (388.6)
- Liverpool 8% (930.2)
- Bolton 6% (366.5)
- Salford 6% (427.3)
- North Somerset 5% (398.5)
- Manchester 4% (441.3)
- Bournemouth 2% (769.7)
Areas where cases are falling the most
- Kingston-upon-Thames -45% (478.3 cases per 100,000 people)
- Southend-on-Sea -44% (700.1)
- Havering -44% (799.5)
- Richmond-upon-Thames -43% (365.1)
- Bromley -43% (365.1)
- Essex -2% (703.8)
- Medway -41% (687.8)
- Northumberland -41% (229.2)
- Swindon -40% (389.8)
- Sutton -40% (710.4)
- North Lincolnshire -39% (143.4)
- Redbridge -39% (968.1)
- Thurrock 37% (995.2)
- Oxfordshire -37% (416.8)
- Kent -36% (552.9)
But while the data is encouraging, overall infection numbers remain sky-high and a lag between infection and the onset of severe illness means hospitalisations and deaths will likely continue to rise for a number of weeks.
Yesterday the government confirmed a further 1,564 Covid people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 – the highest number of UK deaths reported on a single day since the outbreak began.
The previous highest daily total, 1,325, was recorded just five days ago, with deaths in the second wave of the virus now surpassing those in the first wave.
Scientists advising the government have said that, even with a vaccine, the mortality rate may not begin to decline until late February.