2011 was an exceptionally turbulent year, characterised by sovereign debt crises and weak political leadership in the developed world, dramatic political change and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and rising social unrest in much of the world. It featured important changes in democracy, both in the direction of unexpected democratisation and a continuation of decline in democracy in some parts of the world.
This mixed picture is illustrated by the results of the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index for 2011. The Index is based on scores for 60 indicators across five different categories: electoral process and pluralism; civil liberties; the functioning of government; political participation; and political culture.
Countries are placed within one of four types of regimes: 'full democracies', flawed democracies', 'hybrid regimes" and 'authoritarian regimes.'
The state of democracy deteriorated in 48 countries during 2011, out of the 167 that are covered by the Index. In 41 countries it improved and it remained unchanged in 78 countries. The top of the rankings is unsurprisingly dominated by affluent democracies such as the Nordic countries, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Interestingly, though, not one euro zone member is among the top eight.
North Korea remains at the bottom of the list in 167th position. The world's most repressive and authoritarian regimes also include Syria, Iran, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
In most regions the average democracy score was lower in 2011 than in 2010, continuing a negative trend that has been evident for some years. There were declines in North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America. These were offset by improvements in MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa, albeit from a low base in both cases and authoritarian regimes continue to predominate in both of these regions.
In an otherwise bleak year, the sudden rise of movements for democratic change in the Arab world underlined the enduring popular appeal of democracy. Many expected a new wave of democratisation. But it soon became apparent that the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt would not be repeated so easily elsewhere and that democracy remained an uncertain prospect. Many MENA autocracies resorted to repression or cosmetic changes. Still, Tunisia has been a unique success story. It not only initiated the Arab Spring but has also had the most democratic progress. Tunisia experienced the biggest increase of any country in its democracy score in 2011 and it jumped 53 places up the rankings to 92nd.
Erosion of democracy in Europe
Elsewhere, the general picture was of a decline in democracy in 2011, most notably in Europe. In Western Europe, 7 countries experienced a deterioration in 2011; none had an improvement. The main reason has been the erosion of sovereignty and democratic accountability associated with the effects of and responses to the euro zone crisis (five of the countries that experienced a decline in their scores are members of the euro zone--Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland). Most dramatically, in two countries (Greece and Italy) democratically elected leaders have been replaced by technocrats. Policy in some countries is no longer being set by national legislatures, but in effect by official creditors.
Eastern Europe also provides cause for concern. More than a third of the countries in the region recorded lower democracy scores in 2011 than in 2010, and this came on the back of large declines between 2008 and 2010. The most high-profile offender was Russia, where a long process of regression culminated in its relegation to the category of authoritarian regimes. Ukraine and Hungary also had significant backsliding.
The political outlook for Europe is disturbing. The European project is under serious threat. Harsh austerity, a new recession in 2012, high unemployment and little sign of renewed growth will test the resilience of Europe's political institutions.
US democracy, in turn, has been adversely affected by a deepening of the polarisation of the political scene, and political brinkmanship and paralysis. Both the US and the UK remain at the bottom end of the full democracy category. There has been a rise in protest movements, and problems in the functioning of government have become more prominent.
A mixed outlook
In contrast to trends in the developed world, the outlook for democracy looks more hopeful in much of emerging market world. Economic crisis does not inevitably lead to political regression; it has often also been a catalyst for change. Democratisation in hitherto authoritarian states will of course not mean a transition to fully-fledged, consolidated democracies. Democracy means more than holding elections; it requires the development of a range of supportive institutions and attitudes. Such a transformation takes a very long time. But even imperfect or flawed democracy is far better than authoritarianism.