Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to open an impeachment inquiry is long overdue. Not because it’s in her own political interest or will build the support that Democrats need to win in 2020 — in fact it may be politically harmful — but because it’s crucial to preserve the checks and balances required by the US Constitution.
Since January 2017, the Trump Administration has blown up nearly every norm meant to protect our relatively young democracy. It has ignored Congressional subpoenas and refused to send witnesses to testify in oversight hearings. It has failed to provide basic background information on its international agreements, its nominees, and its revised policies. It has proposed sweeping administrative changes without appropriate notice and comment.
His contempt is not limited to the Congress. President Trump has vilified the judiciary — unless they rule in his favour. He has embraced dictators and shunned our allies. And he has obfuscated and dodged at every turn. Outsiders may be forgiven for wondering whether this is the same country that President Ronald Reagan once called a “shining city upon the hill whose beacon light guides freedom-loving people everywhere.”
To date, Congress’s response has been tepid. The Democrats — fearing voter fatigue and concerned about political backlash — have objected but, until now, have been reluctant to pursue more serious measures.
“By acting to open an impeachment inquiry, Speaker Pelosi is taking a political risk for the democracy.”
Special Counsel Robert Mueller did not exonerate President Trump of wrong-doing. He made clear the Justice Department policies hamstrung his ability to bring a criminal indictment — and he laid out a roadmap for Congress to take action. Six months later, there has been almost no consequence.
From a political point of view, it makes sense. Republican Speaker Newt Gingrinch’s overreach in pushing impeachment of President Bill Clinton may have wounded the president, but it ultimately cost Gingrinch several seats in the House and ultimately, his own chair. That lesson left legislators nervous.
Unless the Senate votes to convict Trump — highly unlikely given the ongoing Republican support of the president — taking a shot at the president could be more harmful than helpful to the Democrats. If the ultimate goal is to replace Trump in 2020, or at the very least, preserve the Democratic majority in the House, voting to impeach the president is politically dangerous.
Many of the freshman Democrats were elected on platforms that de-emphasised Trump in favour of more concrete voter concerns, such as healthcare. Trump’s disapproval rate of roughly 50%, according to FiveThirtyEight.com, has not fluctuated significantly despite allegation after allegation of misconduct. Most signs suggest that voters want Congress to pass legislation — not attack Trump.
Likewise, Senate Republicans have been afraid to distance themselves from the president. Whether it’s the net benefit of getting their judges on the bench, support for his policies of widespread deregulation, or calculations meant to protect their seats from primary challengers, they fear speaking out in defence of constitutional prerogatives and the rule of law.
But Democrats may be ready to step up.
First, the recent whistle-blower complaint — alleging that President Trump withheld military aid from a US strategic ally to pressure that government into investigating his political adversary, Vice President Joe Biden — crosses multiple lines. Most importantly, the president appears to have been compromising US national security interests in favour of his own partisan, political and personal interests. Ukraine plays an important strategic role in US efforts to curtail Russian aggression. US foreign and military assistance is intended to strengthen their resilience in the face of ongoing Russian intrusions, not to encourage meddling in US political campaigns.
Second, the president appears to be actively seeking foreign interference in the US election, and not for the first time. In 2016, he publicly invited the Russian government to hack into then presidential-candidate Hillary Clinton’s emails. The same day he made the request, the Russians took their first steps to break into Clinton’s personal servers. Their ultimate success in downloading, then publicising campaign emails provided on-going and persistent damage to Clinton’s campaign, and might have cost her the election. And the non-reaction to the Mueller report, which details this history as well as his campaign’s repeated interaction with foreign representatives, suggests that Trump believed he could do so with impunity.
Unlike the Autumn 2016 candidate, Trump is now President Trump. When he speaks — and when he dangles foreign aid in front of the foreign government — he is abusing his constitutional responsibility to protect the US government. He is playing with taxpayer resources to advance his own political campaign. That means he is violating the law.
Third, Joseph Maguire, the acting director of the national intelligence appears to have attempted to obstruct an investigation into the allegation. Despite a finding by the Inspector General that the complaint was credible, Maguire did not pass along the complaint to Congress as required by statute.
Republicans need to recognise that every time Congress — Democrats and Republicans — allows Trump to ignore, denigrate, or flout Congress’s legitimate role, they allow him to further erode the constitutional checks and balances the founders put in place.
By acting to open an impeachment inquiry, Speaker Pelosi is taking a political risk for the democracy.
Amy Pope is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and former federal prosecutor and counsel in the US Senate.