“Half a loaf is better than no bread”, as Jacob Rees-Mogg philosophically put it, explaining why the leading lights of the European Research Group of hard Brexit zealots eventually sued for peace with Theresa May over the Withdrawal Agreement last week.
But the Democratic Unionists clearly didn’t get the memo, having voted against it yet again. The DUP doesn’t do U-turns – not this publicly or speedily at any rate. The internecine world of unionist politics means the DUP is constantly looking over its shoulder, fearful of being accused of selling out.
And despite reports the DUP’s ten MPs are now split 7-3 in favour of backing the deal, the ever-vocal Sammy Wilson, the man sent out to reassure the DUP base, was unequivocal this weekend, claiming they will vote against the Withdrawal Agreement “a thousand times” while it contains the backstop provision (that keeps Northern Ireland in the customs union and single market).
All this was predictable months ago. Theresa May and leader Arlene Foster bear joint responsibility for not laying the groundwork for the acceptance of the backstop. They allowed the sensible compromise that would leave Northern Ireland in the customs union and single market to become totemic, aided and abetted by a Northern Ireland Office that seems to be asleep at the wheel these days.
A massive economic advantage, with Northern Ireland foregoing a golden opportunity to act as a gateway between Britain and the EU, enjoying the advantages of having access to both, is being squandered over the questionable assumption that by being treated differently, Northern Ireland becomes less British.
Now, like Eric Morecambe in top hat and tails woefully out of alignment with the chorus line, the DUP finds itself hopelessly out of step with the mood in Westminster. Eric did it for comic effect, but no-one is laughing at the DUP. They find themselves holding up the prospect of a manged Brexit, prolonging this sorry state of affairs.
But having painted themselves into a tight corner the long-term implications of being Brexit’s final blocker are becoming obvious. Last week, The Sun newspaper asked: “How did we allow these narrow-minded bigots to say DUP yours to Brexit?”
In a coruscating piece, columnist Leo McKinstry wrote: “At a time when flexibility and imagination are needed to pull Brexit out of the quagmire, our destiny is governed by a bunch of narrow-minded, intransigent bigots who care nothing for the wider interests of the UK.”
He added: “It is profoundly depressing that our great nation’s future should be guided by this tiny, unrepresentative platoon of charlatans and reactionaries.”
Across in The Times, cartoonist Peter Brookes juxtaposed a picture of Theresa May with a back full of protruding blades with an image of Arlene Foster, dressed as an Orangeman, banging a Lambeg drum with the message: “DUP says No” complete with a two-fingered salute. “The woman who feels no pain” versus “the woman who feels no shame”, in Foster’s case.
The DUP and Ulster Unionism more broadly, are not used to such criticism, especially when it comes from Conservative-supporting newspapers. But it is entirely warranted. After all, given Northern Ireland constitutes just 3% of the UK population and just 1.5% of our national economy, this is not so much the tail wagging the dog as the stump of the tail.
But now Unionists are detached even from the hard Brexiteers of the ERG. A fourth defeat for Theresa May’s deal might see the government’s fortunes completely spiral out of control leaving a general election as the only mean of addressing the full systems failure at Westminster.
That is hardly a prospect that appeals to Conservative backbenchers, although the DUP’s intransigence would be unlikely to cost them a single seat. The bigger loss comes in a few short years when Northern Ireland’s very future as part of the UK is on the table. With the prospect of Irish unity fast gaining ground, aided by the prospect of a messy Brexit and hard border, that day draws ever nearer.
There is little kinship for Northern Ireland on this side of the Irish Sea in any event. Now, the DUP has seen for itself how fickle Tory romantics are when it comes to defending ‘our precious Union’. They might not like U-turning on backing Theresa May’s deal, but they may find that being friendless and out of step with Westminster is even more dangerous.
Kevin Meagher is the author of A United Ireland: Why unification is inevitable and how it will come about