Most voters do not believe that Rishi Sunak’s flagship Rwanda plan will help him stop the small boats carrying asylum seekers across the Channel, HuffPost UK can reveal.
Polling by the More in Common think-tank shows that barely one in four people (27%) think it will reduce the numbers making the perilous journey.
By contrast, 47% believe it will make no difference and a further 8% think it will lead to more refugees coming to the UK.
The poll also shows that nearly half of voters - 45% - think ministers should not break international law to make the deportation policy work, compared to 32% who think they should.
Overall, fewer than half - 46% - say they support the policy of sending asylum seekers to Rwanda, compared to 28% who do not.
The findings are a major blow for the prime minister, who has staked his personal authority on getting flights to Rwanda off the ground.
Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director, said: “It continues to be the case that more people support the Rwanda project than not - although crucially not a majority.
“The truth is that for all the political capital that has been spent on the Rwanda project, the public just don’t think that it is going to work and there continues to be limited public support for the UK to break international law in order to try and get flights off the ground.
“It does make you question the wisdom of making this the centrepiece of the Tories plans to tackle illegal immigration - and issue which itself is important to voters.”
Last Tuesday, Sunak won a crunch vote in the Commons on the Safety of Rwanda Bill, which the PM said is vital to finally getting flights to Rwanda off the ground.
It was drawn up after the Supreme Court last month ruled the scheme illegal because of the risk of asylum seekers being sent from the east African country to another nation.
More in Common polled 2,041 adults between December 12 and 14.