Ed Miliband's strategy regarding the Conservative Party has become increasingly clear over the summer months. He aims to use his significant strategic leverage relative to the Conservatives to out-manoeuvre the Tories by pushing them off the centre ground of British politics, breaking the coalition and leaving the Tories in electoral wasteland.
Behind this there is a determination to paint the Conservative Party in the minds of the swing voter as obsessed with a narrow range of issues of concern only to their rank and file; and Cameron's long-term project to modernise the Party as a failure. The combination of the ties of the coalition, restless Tory right-wing backbenchers, the threat of UKIP; mean that the Conservative Party is increasingly vulnerable. It is essential that the strategists within the Conservative Party are aware of such vulnerability and appreciate Ed Miliband's strategic choices for what they are, an attempt goad the Tories into becoming more right wing, retreating to the issues that they feel most comfortable with and leaving a vacuum in the centre of British politics. Whatever the new challenges thrown up by the coalition, arguably our biggest challenge is the one which we have failed to truly meet since 1997. This is the challenge to convince middle England that we are mixture of fair-minded, compassionate, competent; and on the side of the aspirational. However tough the legacy left by Labour and the current political and economic climate, if we are able to convince the electorate that we are hard headed meritocrats, then we will most likely win. For us to do this and to prove that we are in tune with modern Britain as it is, and not how we think it ought to be, we have to engage with a range of issues beyond our traditional areas.
The triple whammy over the summer months of discovering that Ed Miliband not only does patriotism "progressive patriotism", potential "IN-OUT referendums" but also advocates controlled immigration and military academies came as a shock to many Conservatives.
However, this should come as no surprise. For someone who speaks incessantly of how he thinks "idealism" should be at the heart of British politics, his own ideals seem to shift perennially, depending on what he deems to be in his own or his party's interest. There is one constant in Miliband's strategy and that is that he runs campaigns and plans strategies to win by jumping specific political or electoral hurdles chosen by him to suit the moment.
Has Ed Miliband really been converted to the virtues of the Ministry of Defence and the Department of Education teaming up to run academies in deprived areas with a high proportion of NEETs, installing the values and structures of the military into the lives of deprived youngsters as argued by Stephen Twigg? The answer to this question is most likely no. Does Ed Miliband have any intention of reducing annual immigration to the tens of thousands, or even below 200,000 per annum any time after he is elected? Again the answer almost certainly no. Then why is he saying all of this? The answer is that he can. Despite pressure from the teaching unions, who are passionately hostile to military academies, he still has far greater freedom to say what he wants on any issue, even Tory sounding issues, than has the Conservative Party which has to deal with its coalition with a left-leaning partner. The reality is that, as long as the Conservative Party is in coalition with the Liberal Democrats; the Government will have to hug the centre ground of British politics. There are many core Tory policies they just can't implement.
Ed Miliband is aware that tensions within both the Conservative Party and, more broadly, within the coalition are stark. On two occasions this year there have been Conservative rebellions comprising nearly one third of the parliamentary party. A combination of coalition restrictions coupled with the increasing UKIP threat is feeding the feeling within the Conservative Party that perhaps they are best off out of the coalition. Perhaps a pact with UKIP; standing on a robustly Conservative platform would enable us to win an election in the near future?
Of course, Ed Miliband will be aware that every Conservative leader since John Major has buckled under such political pressure, swinging to the right and pursuing a core vote strategy. Every time that strategy has failed. Ed Miliband will be hoping that a combination of disgruntled Tory backbenches, concerned about UKIP's increasing ownership of traditional Conservative areas as well as Labour's increasing engagement with Conservative issues will foster an overwhelming urge within the Conservative Party to reclaim the issues that we feel most comfortable talking about as dominant themes. Firstly, Ed Miliband will hope that this will lead to further intra-coalition tensions both between Cameron and his backbenchers and the Liberal Democrats, possibly bringing about an early election. Secondly, having succeeded in goading the Tories to swing to the right, it will make it easier for Labour to fight the election on its own terms. This is not to say that immigration, military academies and patriotism are not important areas that we need to get right. It's just they should not be seen as dominating our discourse. The potential for us to acquire the majority we need would be harmed by a sudden emotional swing in defence of these issues by Conservative MPs who are fearful that they are being appropriated by others.
We should be aware that Labour's recent attempts to engage with these issues are not driven by altruism or an attempt to add anything constructive to the debate but by an attempt to play on Conservative fears that somehow we are losing our identity through coalition and that and move towards the right is needed to bridge the gap. These are important issues, but they should in no way be integral to the narrative we present to the great British public in 2015. Any perceived emotional swing towards these traditional issues in response to external party political strategies or internal divisions would likely be perceived a mixture of weakness, division, and the same old Tories.
David Cameron's defining challenge is to resist such pressure. Stick with the coalition, stick to radicalism in public service reform, stick to deficit reduction, and beware of team TWIGG-MILIBAND-MANDELSON-FARAGE bearing gifts, promising "IN-OUT referendums", "Military Academies'", "Patriotism" and "Controlled Immigration". We will know that we have been successful when public service reform, a passion for social justice and international development start to sound like Tory issues. Let Labour talk about what they want to talk about. A Conservative majority can be secured, our biggest barriers lie within.
Enough political capital can be accumulated through a mixture of perceived competence, fairness and hope for the future. Competence on the back of our fiscal policy, fairness of the back of our welfare reforms, and hope and positivity on the back of our education reforms and any perceived Olympic legacy that we are perceived as having helped facilitate.