There has rarely been more at stake in British politics. A few months from now Boris Johnson could be installed in Downing Street with a new majority, force through no-deal, and then spend the next five years taking apart the welfare state as he focuses his energy on a trade deal that commits the UK to a US-style low rights, low security and low tax economy.
Alternatively Brexit could be history, undone by a Remain win in a second referendum, and a new Labour Government – possibly with Liberal Democrat and SNP support – could be embarking on a programme to undo the wasted years of austerity.
Anyone who tells you they know which way this is going to go probably isn’t paying attention. The polls are all over the place and shift based on the latest moves by Johnson, Swinson and Corbyn. Voters are increasingly split into Remain and Leave tribes, each one looking for the best option to take them to their preferred destination.
The offers from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats increasingly reflect this polarisation; the former have no interest in Remain voters, the latter have staked their political future on them. The Brexit process meanwhile boxes Boris Johnson in further and further to the point where he probably doesn’t have an escape route. He is quickly discovering that Brexit will ruin him just as it did both his predecessors.
All of this puts the ball firmly in Labour’s court. It just needs to make the right play. The prize before it is a Labour government and an end to Brexit. The nightmare scenario is no-deal and a Johnson majority. As things stand Labour has the chance to direct events. Labour can stop a Brexit deal going through parliament and can enforce an Article 50 extension. It can enable or deny a general election. It can make what it determines to be the best choices for its own interests and the interests of the country – a remarkable amount of power for an opposition party.
The danger is that Labour will waste the power that it has through an overly hasty rush to a general election. It is hardly news that our shoddy government deserves to be put out of its misery, not least so that they are prevented from causing further vandalism to the constitution. Labour has a powerful policy offer on climate change, ending inequality and transforming education and the NHS. Why wouldn’t they want the chance to put this offer to a vote against the Tories’ record of austerity, mismanagement and failed Brexit negotiations?
The answer is that Labour needs to decide whether a better strategy would be to get Brexit over with first. Labour does have a strong policy offer, but in truth it may not be heard in a Brexit general election. With voters and the media interested only in the party’s Brexit position, the work done by the shadow cabinet could get lost in the noise. The polls, while volatile, consistently point to a Labour loss. Stopping a Johnson win would be a challenge, all the more so if there is even tacit agreement between him and Farage.
The only way to ensure that an election is held on the basis of Labour’s policy offer versus those of its opponents is to end Brexit first. If a caretaker government was mandated to hold a confirmatory referendum first, and an election second, Labour could then enter an election where both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats had been robbed of their signature policies – no-deal and Revoke.
The Conservatives have become the Brexit Party in all but name to the extent that it is hard to imagine what they would offer in a general election if it came soon after a Remain referendum win. The same is true of the Liberal Democrats; Jo Swinson has made Remain so integral to her pitch that it’s near impossible to name another Liberal Democrat policy. An election held on Labour’s policy vision against two parties bereft of purpose and policy would be a very different prospect to one held in the midst of this crisis. It could be the making of Labour.
This debate will be played out at Labour conference over coming days. Party members, organised by campaign groups such as Labour for a Public Vote and Another Europe is Possible, will push for Labour to back Remain in any circumstance, and to consider supporting a referendum before an election. Much of the parliamentary party, conscious that their seats are at stake, already favour a delay. Party members and supporters agree; a recent survey showed that three times as many prefer a referendum first to end Brexit and leave a clean slate for an election.
Our country is at a crossroads. One direction leads to the fulfilment of Dominic Raab and Priti Patel’s vision of a deregulated Britain where a tiny minority do well while the rest suffer increasing insecurity, poverty and inequality. The other direction steps Britain back from the brink and enables us to renew our ties with Europe, our social contract and our fractured nation. Labour members and delegates this week can send a powerful signal about which route they believe their party should take. They should take the opportunity to put a referendum first, ensuring a swift end to Brexit and making a Labour election win more likely in the process.
Mike Buckley is Director of Labour for a Public Vote