Labour is heading for a landslide victory at the next election, with the Tories being left with just 69 seats, according to a dramatic new poll.
The Sevanta study predicts that Keir Starmer’s party will win 482 seats, handing him a majority of 314.
That would be far more than even Tony Blair managed to achieve in 1997, when New Labour won with a majority of 179.
Prime minister Rishi Sunak, alongwith his two predecessors, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson, would be among the Tory big-hitters to lose their seats.
The poll is significant because it was carried out using a so-called “MRP model”, which has been shown to be more accurate than traditional surveys.
Unlike other polls, it takes account of a wide range of factors to predict how certain groups are likely to vote.
The Sevanta poll puts support for Labour on 48%, with the Conservatives on 28%, the Lib Dems on 11%, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 4% and the Greens on 3%.
It predicts that the SNP would again be the third largest party in the House of Commons, with 55 MPs - seven more than they currently have.
The Lib Dems would see their number of MPs jump by 10 to 21.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “Last time we published an MRP model, I spoke of both the potential and precarious nature of the 56-seat majority and 12pt lead the poll gave the Labour party during their conference.
“Even the most optimistic Labour supporter would not have foreseen what was to come, such was the subsequent Conservative collapse, and therefore this latest MRP model reflects the position now, of two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes.”
However, he said the pollster “must still express caution” and stressed that Sunak could yet fight back before the next election, which is expected in 2024.
He said: “Many seats going to Labour in this model, including a few that could be deemed ‘red wall’, still indicate a 40% or higher chance of remaining Conservative, and while that would have little impact on the overall election result, it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this nowcast model.”