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May the four be with you
And then there were four. Rebecca Long Bailey, Jess Phillips and Lisa Nandy have joined Keir Starmer in clearing the first hurdle in the Labour leadership race. Getting over the threshold of 22 MPs/MEPs needed is a big relief for Philips and Nandy, but Emily Thornberry (on 9) and Clive Lewis (on 4) are still way off that figure.
The two stragglers will hope that because their rivals are now safe, MPs can afford to ‘lend’ them their nominations to ensure a wider debate. That may be a forlorn hope. Barry Gardiner (whose possible shock entry to the race caused much interest) has even less chance of hitting the target, given he is not even in the country to press the flesh.
Thornberry, who a year ago looked like a very strong contender (Len McCluskey was a fan), has in particular proved just how fast things can change in politics. One problem that the shadow foreign secretary has had is her shift from early uber-loyalty to Jeremy Corbyn (don’t forget the abuse she got when she was first appointed shadow defence secretary before her current role) to latter-day critic.
In her SkyNews interview today she certainly got noticed by awarding the Labour leader ‘0 out of 10’ for his election performance and ‘2 out of 10’ for combating anti-semitism. Thornberry fans think she’s been unfairly treated, not least as her own outspoken outbursts urging a more pro-Remain stance were no more vociferous than Starmer’s.
The way she was dropped from PMQs, and her battle to ensure the manifesto criticised Hamas rockets fired at Israel, underscore that behind the scenes Corbyn’s advisers really were never on the same page. Yet maybe the biggest difficulty of all for Thornberry is that the ‘soft left’ territory she occupies has been crowded out by Starmer and Nandy. Long Bailey is clearly the Corbyn Left candidate and Phillips at least has the definition of the most ‘centrist’ contender.
Still, for Nandy and Phillips the race has only just begun. This is a steeplechase that fittingly ends with an announcement on Grand National day and the great big Becher’s Brook facing the candidates is the new, extra requirement to get either 5% of constituency party nominations or 5% of affiliates. Starmer already has Unison and may well get USDAW, Long Bailey must surely get Unite (despite its boss apparently looking for other contenders), the CWU and TSSA.
Nandy will be hoping the GMB effectively gets her onto the ballot paper, but the union is keeping its cards close to its chest for now. If she fails to do that, she and Phillips really will have to rely on local constituency Labour parties (CLPs) to progress. And this is where the real Corbyn legacy lies: by changing the rules to insist on union or membership nominations, MPs can no longer rely on colleagues in parliament to get them on the ballot paper.
In theory, just 33 CLPs are needed. But it’s worth recalling that in 2015 Liz Kendall managed just 18, and that was before the days when Momentum was even a twinkle in Jon Lansman’s eye. CLPs must hold an all-member meeting that will ensure Momentum’s clout is felt. It’s possible that Starmer and Long Bailey could mop up the bulk of local party nominations, and that many CLPs won’t nominate at all given how difficult it is to pick one contender above others.
Nandy is winning the online game so far (though as Corbyn found out that ain’t enough). I can reveal her cult-like status among some admirers has led someone to buy the addresses ‘rebeccaforleader.com’, ‘longbaileyforleader.com’ and ‘rebeccalongbaileyforleader.com’ - and redirect them automatically to Nandy’s official website, ‘LisaNandy.org’. Team Nandy tell me it’s nowt to do with them and urge whoever’s responsible to pack it in.
There’s also an extra hurdle that looms for Nandy and Phillips. So far, the party has not said when it will hold its national series of hustings, but if they take place only after CLP nominations close (on 14 February) that could make life even more difficult for them. Nandy and Phillips may need those hustings to prove to local parties how good they are, but may not get the chance to do so. We really could be down to a straight run-off between Starmer and Long Bailey.
Starmer is undeniably in a strong position, though one MP muttered to me this week that “he could be our Theresa May”. Both his strength and his weakness is that he had a life before politics. His time at the DPP is certainly an asset, yet it means he has to work harder to find political definition.
In the Commons today, Starmer said: “We may not win many votes in Parliament just now, but we can win the moral argument.” He was talking specifically about child refugees, but to some critics it felt like his wider pitch in a nutshell - and one that echoes Corbyn’s claim to have ‘won the argument’, while losing votes (in elections, not just parliament).
After a slow and shaky start, Long Bailey now has a formidable team around her. But there are plenty of MPs who think even the pro-Corbyn membership will be swayed most of all by the scale of that defeat on December 12. In our Commons People podcast this week, Rachel Reeves warns that Labour could go down to a rump of just 100 MPs if it fails to change course.
Reeves, who admits she’s a fan of Phillips, is however one of those backbenchers whom many Labour MPs want to see back on the front line (shadow business or shadow chancellor are possible). Few could argue that recent shadow cabinets have been stacked with talent, but there may now be a place for figures like Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper and others forced to chair select committees while exiled from the frontbench.
And even if the leadership race ends up with two or even four contenders (and the deputy race may end up with a similar number), the one big benefit for Labour is that each of the losing candidates can boost the shadow cabinet of the eventual winner. An Opposition frontbench with Nandy (Communities?), Phillips (Work and Pensions?), Ian Murray (Scotland) and Rosena Allin-Khan (Health?) would look much stronger. If there’s one real positive out of the leadership races, that may be it.
Commons People
We are joined this week by Rachel Reeves, chair of the business select committee and former frontbencher. Click here to listen as she gives a full and frank assessment of where Labour now stands.
Search for Commons People wherever you listen to podcasts and subscribe.
Quote Of The Day
“Will he make representations to the House of Commons Commission whose decision this is...that Big Ben should bong for Brexit!”
Mark Francois presses Brexit secretary Steve Barclay on the bell end of the UK’s EU membership.
Thursday Cheat Sheet
Boris Johnson has spoken to President Zelensky of Ukraine, saying he wants to see a “full, credible and transparent investigation” into the crash of the Ukrainian airliner in Iran. Johnson said tonight there is “a body of information the flight was shot down by an Iranian surface to air missile”, probably unintentionally.
MPs have voted to give a third reading to the EU Withdrawal Agreement bill, by a majority of 99, to loud cheers from Tory benches.
NHS hospitals suffered huge pressure in December, with one in five A&E patients waiting over four hours, the lowest figure for years (as this shocking HSJ graphic shows). Nearly 100,000 of the sickest patients were forced to spend over four hours on trolleys and in corridors.
Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard is considering backing a second independence referendum at a special meeting this weekend, the Guardian revealed.
Transport secretary Grant Shapps warned Northern Rail could be stripped of its franchise as he revealed its private operator Arriva only has the finances to continue “for a number of months”. But the Northern Powerhouse group said the real issue was badly needed engineering works to allow operators to run services more effectively.
SNP MP Hannah Bardell is to report Ulster unionist peer Lord Maginnis to the police for hate crime, after he described her to HuffPost UK as a “queer”.
EU Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier warned that if the UK wants “zero tariffs, zero quotas” with Brussels “we need to be careful about zero dumping at the same time”.
What I’m Reading
Does Malcolm Gladwell Still Have Something To Say? - Ian Leslie, New Statesman
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