Theresa May will try to put her Brexit deal before MPs for a third and final time next week in a last-ditch bid to keep her premiership alive.
After yet another Commons defeat in which 13 of her own ministers defied her orders, the prime minister announced she would on Thursday give parliament a stark choice to support her plans, or to delay Brexit by many months.
Earlier, multiple sources told HuffPost UK that May was determined to give her proposals one last chance, with fresh reassurances to get her Northern Irish DUP partners and backbench Brexiteers on board.
A fresh ‘meaningful vote 3’ is pencilled in for as early as Monday night, though the PM will allow it to take place up to the eve of a crunch EU summit on March 21.
Under a new motion to be voted on Thursday, MPs will be told to either back her plans with a short delay of Brexit to June 30, or to support a much longer, unspecified delay that will inevitably allow alternatives such as a ‘softer Brexit’ or a second referendum.
Central to the fresh push for May’s deal is a new move to woo the DUP, with clarifications from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox on protections for Northern Ireland and new domestic legislation to give the province more of a say over Brexit.
Ministers are keen to seize back control of the agenda, in a bid to allow the EU summit next Thursday to approve the whole deal.
A cross-party group of MPs led by Labour’s Yvette Cooper is set to use Thursday’s crucial vote on postponing exit day beyond March 29, pressing an amendment to give the Commons a chance to give their verdict on alternatives to May’s deal.
Among the main alternatives being promoted are a ‘Common Market 2.0’ plan for a softer Brexit with a customs union and some form of access to the EU single market. Backers of a so-called ‘people’s vote’ referendum are also keen to use the votes to get their plans approved.
But several members of the government believe that May can revive her own deal, using a short delay to Brexit to allow a ‘technical extension’ of the Article 50 process of formally leaving the EU.
One government insider said that the DUP and the European Research Group (ERG) of backbench Brexiteers are “very much in the market to be persuaded” by a strengthened deal.
Some in the ERG believe that votes can be shifted by more clarity on a late offer made by Brexit secretary Steve Barclay on Tuesday night, to use the Vienna Convention on international treaties to allow the UK to exit its ties to the EU ‘backstop’.
Several Brexiteers believe that they can push the Commons votes to March 26, three days before exit day. ERG co-chair Mark Francois offered Labour’s Keir Starmer a bet of £50 that ‘a third meaningful vote’ will take place then.
Lines of communication opened up to get progress, although one DUP source said that they met the government chief whip on Wednesday to warn that they would not shift unless there were changes to the current deal.
Environment secretary Michael Gove and chancellor Philip Hammond both gave strong hints that May would indeed allow MPs to vote on the various options.
Asked by Labour’s Emma Reynolds about ‘indicative votes’, Gove replied: “I think that, depending on how the House votes today, we may have an opportunity to vote on that proposition tomorrow.
“But one of the things that I think is important is that we, as quickly as we possibly can, find consensus.”
Hammond had sparked a rash of speculation about a compromise deal for a softer Brexit, when he wanted “to start to map out a way forward towards building a consensus across this house for a deal we can collectively support to exit the EU in an orderly way”.
The cross-party Brexit Select Committee published ‘an urgent report’ on Wednesday to back the idea of a set of new Commons votes on alternative plans.
Chairman Hilary Benn said: “Parliament must now be given the chance to hold a series of indicative votes as quickly as possible or else we will not find out what there might be support for as an alternative to the Prime Minister’s deal which has now been rejected twice by large majorities.”
Treasury Chief Secretary Liz Truss told the PM programme that May’s deal deserved a third vote: “I think it is still alive, I do. ... I think that’s the conclusion MPs will ultimately come to.”
Immediately after her 149-vote defeat on Tuesday, May herself said that MPs would have to make clear what they wanted if they did want an a delay to Brexit.
“Does it wish to revoke article 50? Does it want to hold a second referendum? Or does it want to leave with a deal but not this deal?
“These are unenviable choices, but thanks to the decision the house has made this evening they must now be faced.”