Over the last year or so, I’ve been unsure whether I’d ever financially recover from running out of olive oil.
Its costs have risen and risen in the UK, thanks in part to poor growing conditions in Europe.
But there’s some good news ― the world’s biggest producer of olive oil, Doleo (who owns brands like Bertolli), says prices are set to halve.
They make their oils in Spain, where half of the world’s olive oil is produced.
Speaking to CNBC, Miguel Ángel Guzmán, the company’s chief sales officer, said that this year’s growing conditions were far better than previous ones in the country.
“The outlook is positive for the coming months, as the market is expected to begin to stabilize and normality is expected to be gradually restored as the new harvest progresses and supply increases,” he said.
Okay, but when?
Speaking to Spanish publication Sur, Guzmán said that the changes will start to happen in November, though he adds that “there is still not enough volume of purchases and stock” to drastically lower prices yet.
This echoes what he told CNBC.
“The relaxation of prices at origin is expected to begin between November, December and January, provided that weather and harvest conditions remain stable in the coming weeks,” he shared.
“Indications are that if everything develops normally, especially if rains continue to favour production, we could see a downward trend in prices throughout 2025.”
This is in line with what CaixaBank Research economist Pedro Álvarez Ondina told The Times this year: “For the olive industry the major drag was the lack of rain in the last two-and-a-half years.”
“We have seen the first signs that the sector is doing a little bit better because of a better weather situation,” he added at the time.
How much will it cost?
Guzmán told Sur that olive oil spices should drop to 5-6 Euro per litre from 9-10 Euro a litre.
That’s in Spain, of course, and in Euro; the average price of a litre of own-brand olive oil in UK supermarkets hit £7.38 this year, which is about €8.85 as of the time of writing.
€6 is roughly £5.01 right now, meanwhile ― this is the price Guzmán says olive oil may drop to in Spain.
He told Sur, however, that he hopes prices don’t dip below €5-€6 as this ”“would jeopardise the viability of many farms.”