It’s yet another milestone week in British politics as MPs are expected to be given a third meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal.
The prime minister has given her opponents two options.
One: vote for her deal and she will ask the EU for a short “technical” extension to Article 50 beyond March 29 to give parliament enough time to pass the required legislation.
Two: reject the deal and force her to ask Brussels to grant a lengthy extension of “many months” to give the UK time to work out what it actually wants.
A long delay, beyond two months, could also mean the UK having the politically fraught requirement of holding elections to the European Parliament in May - despite the country having voted to leave the EU three years previously.
Downing Street hopes the threat of a long delay to leaving, which could result in a much softer exit than under May’s plan or even open the door to a second referendum, will be enough to convince pro-Brexit Tory MPs to hold their noses and vote for the deal.
Some have already switched, including former work and pensions secretary Esther McVey. “Of course we could go down fighting, hold out for something better, but we’d lose, and any hope of Brexit would be lost too,” she said on Sunday.
This strategy, by design or unhappy coincidence, is precisely what the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator, Olly Robbins, outlined in a Brussels bar back in February.
“Got to make them believe that the week beginning end of March... Extension is possible but if they don’t vote for the deal then the extension is a long one...” an ITV reporter overheard him saying.
On Sunday, Philip Hammond and Liam Fox tightened the screws on Brexiteer Tories even more. The chancellor and trade secretary said that unless the government was confident it would win a third meaningful vote this week, it would just scrap it. This would lead May to have no choice but to request a long delay to Brexit.
“We are not just going to keep presenting it if we haven’t moved the dial,” the chancellor told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show.
The government has also been holding talks with the Northern Irish DUP in the hope of bringing its 10 MPs on board. Hammond dismissed claims he was prepared to offer up more cash for Northern Ireland to sweeten the deal. Although he did not rule it out.
If the DUP, which props up May’s minority government, can be convinced to back the deal the hope is this will persuade a significant number of backbench Tory critics to also get in line.
There is also speculation the prime minister could promise to stand down as the price for Tory MPs backing her deal. Asked if that was an option, Hammond pointedly did not rule it out.
“She is the kind of person who will always do what she thinks is in the best interests of the country,” he said.
Jeremy Corbyn on Sunday indicated he would order Labour MPs to back a move to trigger a second referendum. Albeit reluctantly.
Backbenchers Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson are expected to table an amendment to the PM’s deal that would see MPs vote for it on the condition it is put to a public vote.
The Labour leader’s preference however is for a general election. And he said if May’s deal is rejected this week he would try to force one by tabling a vote of no confidence in the government.
By the end of the week, there are a number of different situations the UK could find itself in. Parliament could have agreed a Brexit deal, or Brussels could have allowed Brexit to be delayed by as long as 21-months. We could even be on course for a second referendum, be expecting a new Tory prime minister, be on the verge of another general election, or a combination of any of the above. So buckle up, it’s not slowing down any time soon.