Rishi Sunak is bracing himself for a triple by-election nightmare as voters go to the polls today in three crucial seats.
The Tories are defending Somerton and Frome in Somerset, Uxbridge and South Ruislip in London and Selby and Ainsty in north Yorkshire.
All three seats have become vacant following the resignations, for a variety of reasons, of the sitting Conservative MPs.
According to the bookies, the Lib Dems are clear favourites to win in Somerton and Frome, while Labour should triumph in the other two.
If that were to happen, it would heap even more pressure on Sunak, and provide further evidence of his failure to turn around his party’s fortunes since becoming prime minister nine months ago.
Here, HuffPost UK examines all three seats and assesses the likelihood of more Tory misery.
Somerton and Frome
Former Tory MP David Warburton retained the seat in 2019 with a majority of 19,213, but resigned last month following allegations of sexual misconduct and drug taking and more than a year after losing the Conservative whip.
Lib Dem sources told HuffPost UK that the Tory campaign “has kicked up a notch” in recent days.
“Their posters are now appearing and a letter was delivered to people on Tuesday - although neither of them actually mentioned the word ‘Conservatives’,” one source said.
“And in the Conservative-leaning villages its clear the party’s brand is heavily damaged and we’re seeing people switching to us.”
Canvassing of voters in the most Tory ward in Frome shows a comfortable Lib Dem lead, adding to the party’s optimism that it is on course for victory.
Labour and Green supporters are also expected to vote tactically for the Lib Dems, further hampering the Tories’ chances.
In a letter urging local voters to back the Lib Dems, Green Party member Duncan Skene said: “Voting for the Green Party or Labour will just help the Conservatives - and leave Frome with another Conservative MP who doesn’t share our values and priorities.”
Selby and Ainsty
On paper, Selby and Ainsty is the safest Tory seat of the three up for grabs, with Nigel Adams retaining it for the party in 2019 with a majority of 20,137.
Nevertheless, Labour are quietly confident of claiming what would be, numerically at least, the most significant by-election win in the party’s history.
The biggest majority they have ever overturned in a by-election previously was 14,654 in Mid Staffordshire in 1990.
“The first thing I noticed was there weren’t any Tory posters,” one Labour MP who visited Selby and Ainsty earlier this week told HuffPost UK. “It’s like they’re almost embarrassed to say who they are.”
He added: “The posh parts of the seat weren’t hostile to us and we had people saying they’d vote Labour who you wouldn’t expect.
“It will all hinge on how many Tories decide to stay at home. If we don’t win it we’ll come bloody close.”
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
With a majority of 7,210, this should be the most vulnerable Tory seat, but London mayor Sadiq Khan’s decision to expand the controversial Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to the whole of the capital has thrown the by-election into the melting pot.
The Tories, who oppose the move, have effectively turned the contest into a referendum on that single issue, which has given them a fighting chance of defying the odds and holding on to Boris Johnson’s old seat.
A senior Labour source told HuffPost UK: “It is extremely tight. If we win, it will be with a wafer-thin majority. You’re talking in the hundreds.”
When will we know who’s won?
Polls close at 10pm tonight and the results of all three are expected to come in between and 2am and 6am on Friday.
Three Tory losses will give Sunak the worst possible start to parliament’s summer recess, and may even hasten the cabinet reshuffle that Downing Street is currently planning.
For Labour, a successful night will confirm what the national polls are telling us - that Keir Starmer is on course to take the keys to Number 10 at the next general election.