A foreboding sense of deja vu descended across England over the weekend with the announcement of a second national lockdown in an attempt to get control of the coronavirus pandemic.
Although we’ve been here before, the prospect of being confined to our homes over winter with only outdoor walks for entertainment is somewhat bleaker than it was in sunny March. Some 750,000 people had lost their jobs during the pandemic as of August – they won’t be eligible for furlough even if they were first time around. And that’s to say nothing of the chaos wreaked on the businesses forced to shut down with just a few days’ notice during one of the busiest periods of the year.
So the question everyone is asking is – will it work?
While it’s impossible to say for certain, there are a number of points that can be examined.
1) Are the the new lockdown restrictions the right ones?
The latest PHE data show that, of the top five locations where “outbreaks” of Covid occur, only two will be closed under the new restrictions – pubs and restaurants, which together account for 14.4% of transmission cases identified by NHS Test and Trace.
Supermarkets, and secondary and primary schools – which together account for 23.7% of outbreaks – will remain open.
2) Is the timing right?
Boris Johnson’s announcement of a national lockdown for England came over a month after experts – and Labour – called for a shorter two-week “circuit-breaker” intervention.
Professor Andrew Hayward, who sits on the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, said on Monday the earlier intervention would have saved “thousands of lives”.
He also said the move would have “inflicted substantially less damage” to the economy.
3) Is there public support?
Yes, but not at levels seen in March when the first lockdown was imposed. Back then, 93% of the public supported the measures – but this has dropped to 72%.
Support is highest among the over-65s and lowest among 18- to 24-year-olds.
4) Will it reduce infections?
Undoubtedly yes – with fewer situations in which people can pass on the disease, there will be fewer infections.
The crucial question – and the one we don’t know the answer to just yet – is by how much.
There is clear evidence that the first lockdown in March worked to reduce infection rates, halving them every eight to nine days.
But this time around there are two indicators to suggest the effects of the lockdown will be limited.
Firstly, as mentioned above, is the fact that places where high levels of transmission occur such as schools and supermarkets, are to remain open.
The second is the timing. Modelling published last week of the effect of a two-week circuit breaker said “cooler temperatures and darker nights will lead to far more indoor mixing in the coming months, potentially increasing [the R rate] further”.
5) Will it reduce the death rate?
It’s far too early to tell, but what is certain is that any reduction in the death rate won’t be apparent for a number of weeks.
This is because of the time lag from when a person becomes infected to when they become ill enough to be admitted to hospital – and then, in the worst cases, die.
This can be anywhere between two and eight weeks meaning daily reported deaths could still be increasing when the initial restrictions are up for review.
The lockdown will then be eased on a regional basis according to the latest coronavirus case data at that time, the government hop.
The PM will use a statement in the Commons later on Monday to say that “we will seek” to ease restrictions back into the local tiered system next month.
And he will warn that Covid-19 deaths over the winter could be twice as high as during the first wave without the move, with several senior Conservatives likely to rebel against the government.
And how does it compare to other UK countries?
Scotland will move to a new five-tier level of restrictions at 6am on Monday, as Nicola Sturgeon warned she would not hesitate to increase the level of protection either locally or nationally if required.
New national measures to help curb the spread of coronavirus in Wales when the 17-day firebreak expires on November 9 will be unveiled by First Minister Mark Drakeford on Monday.
Schools in Northern Ireland will reopen on Monday after an extended half-term holiday, though other lockdown restrictions will remain in place until November 13.