Last Friday night, as another hectic week in Westminster was drawing to a close, Boris Johnson received a delivery from the Metropolitan Police.
The questionnaire asking him to set out his involvement in the alleged lockdown-busting parties in Downing Street was not unexpected, but was unwelcome nevertheless.
The prime minister, along with the other recipients of the Met forms, was given seven days to return it, meaning he has until 10pm this Friday to hand it back.
Most observers - and many within the PM’s inner circle - believe he is bound to receive a fixed penalty notice for breaking his own government’s lockdown rules.
In recent days, however, a picture has begun to emerge of how Johnson’s lawyers think he can bet the rap.
What do we know so far?
Thanks to Sue Gray’s interim report on the partygate scandal, we know that the Met are investigating 12 gatherings in Whitehall and Downing Street
Of those, it is understood that Johnson himself personally attended at least three of them - including one celebrating his birthday on June 19, 2020, and the now-infamous “Abba party” in the flat above 11 Downing Street that he shares with his wife, Carrie, and their two children.
What has Johnson said about it all?
It’s fair to say that the prime minister’s story has evolved since the scandal first broke last year.
Announcing an inquiry into the allegations in December, he told MPs: “I have been repeatedly assured since these allegations emerged that there was no party and that no Covid rules were broken. That is what I have been repeatedly assured.”
But on the day of Gray’s report, Johnson apologised for the very parties he previously denied had taken place.
“But it isn’t enough to say sorry,” he said. “This is a moment when we must look at ourselves in the mirror and we must learn.”
He said there would be a shake-up of the Downing Street machine but, significantly, stopped short of admitting any culpability of his own.
What happened next?
Frankly, all hell broke loose. During the same Commons appearance, the prime minister accused Keir Starmer of allowing Jimmy Savile to escape justice when he was Director of Public Prosecutions - an untrue smear which originated on right-wing websites.
The row led to more Tory MPs submitting letters of no confidence in Johnson’s leadership and, when he refused to apologise, the resignation of his longstanding policy chief, Minura Mirza.
On the same day she departed, Downing Street also announced the departure of communications director Jack Doyle, chief of staff Dan Rosenfield and principle private secretary Martin Reynolds, the man dubbed “Party Marty” for inviting No. 10 staff to a “bring your own booze” party in the garden during the first lockdown.
So where are we now?
While we are assured that the threat of war in Ukraine has been Johnson’s sole focus in recent days, the threat to his premiership is never far away from his mind.
Many of his own MPs - including former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith - believe the PM cannot survive if he is found to have broken his own lockdown rules. Johnson, who is no stranger to getting himself out of tight spots, disagrees.
In fact, briefings emanating from those close to the prime minister suggest there is a “good chance” that he may not be fined at all. Johnson’s lawyers think he can justifiably argue that he believed each of the gatherings he attended were work events and therefore within the rules.
“Legally the situation is not as black and white as it might seem,” one ally told the Financial Times. “Some of the gatherings may have become full-blown parties later but not while the PM was in attendance. He will argue he was there for work purposes.”
ITV’s political editor, Robert Peston, has heard similar.
He wrote: “I am told that the relevant test - or at least so his lawyers believe - is whether he went back to “proper” work immediately after drinking a glass of wine in the Downing Street garden or being ambushed by birthday cake in the cabinet office, or saying goodbye to a colleague in a haze of prosecco or singing along to Abba in the study of his Downing Street flat.
“If he can prove that he didn’t get drunk and incapacitated, and has proof that he resumed more conventional prime ministerial activities after the seeming parties, his legal advisors seem to think there is a chance he can prove said events were simply part of his working day.”
So there you have it. Johnson’s position, it seems, has shifted from ‘there were no parties’ to ‘I was not aware of any parties’ to ‘I was present at gatherings, but they were not parties while I was there’. It’s a bold - some might even say incredible - argument, but there’s growing optimism within his inner circle that it might just work.
Either way, we won’t have to wait very long to find out. Over to you, Metropolitan Police.