With the complex struggles seen in Egypt and Tunisia - not to mention Libya - seemingly settling down and drawing to concrete closures there is one uprising that may yet eclipse them all. Yemen, widely considered the nucleus of al-Qaeda, has seen escalating violence in recent weeks following the mass protests that have erupted within the Middle East. Anti-government demonstrators have incessantly clashed with loyalist forces, resulting in the deaths of over four hundred citizens. Whilst most western attention has been dedicated to the troubling, multifaceted issues arising in Syria, Yemen appears to have been overlooked.
Friday (16th) saw further protests as hundreds of thousands took to the streets calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down. Human Rights activists claim that around 450 people have been killed during Saleh's brutal crackdown on pro-reform demonstrations. The president himself is said to be recovering in Saudi Arabia following an attack on his palace in June. What makes the situation so complex appears to be the varying aims of the opposition. Saleh has received criticism from many factions, including socialist, Islamist and tribal groups, all of whom have different ambitions and objectives. The majority of these dissenters represent the narrow-minority Shia population of Yemen. It is thought that 52% of the Muslim population in Yemen is Sunni compared to 48% that are Shia.
The main opposition comes from the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), a coalition of five separate parties that have endorsed major political reform. The Ahmar family - formerly loyal to Saleh - have also emerged as potential challengers to the presidency. Younger, more radical members of the dynasty have accused Saleh of treason. The Southern Movement, a secessionist group who crave independence from northern Yemen, has also supported the uprisings. Their grievances revolve around the south's failure to spread wealth evenly around the country.
Quite simply, these are murky times for Yemen. Unlike other Middle Eastern quandaries, this one may present graver long-term consequences. The concern surrounding Syria revolves around American commitment to the survival of Israel, which has regrettably led to Yemen's situation being sidestepped. However, the threat of al-Qaeda increasing its stranglehold on Yemen will undoubtedly concern America, as will the prospect of an extreme Islamist group gaining control of what is, geographically, an extremely important territory.
America's response to the crisis in Yemen has been somewhat covert. Obama has secretly authorised the increased use of drone strikes. Thus far, these assaults have been focused on the southern part of the country where insurgent forces have made the most headway. This would suggest that the US is standing by President Saleh - if you recall, they also stood by Hosni Mubarak in Egypt until he was all but toppled before switching allegiance at the last minute. Nice to know American hegemonic tendencies are alive and well. White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan was quoted as saying, when asked of America's role in Yemen, "We reserve the right to take unilateral action if or when other governments are unwilling or unable to take the necessary action themselves"; once again, good old America, the world's policeman.
With many of President Saleh's Republican Guard soldiers, considered to be tremendously loyal, now defecting to the opposition, the potential to fight al-Qaeda militants within Yemen appears to be ever decreasing. Added to that, as government crackdowns on al-Qaeda militants take the form of erroneous bombings, resentful citizens, angry at the deaths of innocent civilians, find their commitments torn. In an equation not too dissimilar to 9/11, the way we deal with al-Qaeda is crucial. Imprecise aerial bombardments merely strengthen al-Qaeda's propaganda arsenal. Civilian deaths are used as justification for their actions - a pragmatic move - and fuels strong anti-West sentiment.
The West - in its rhetorical response at least - has been noticeably quiet in its feelings towards the crisis in Yemen. Undoubtedly, this is fundamentally a civil dispute between two seemingly incompatible religious sects. But with al-Qaeda manipulating what is already an intricate state of affairs, teamed with mounting pressure on Saleh to step down, surely the West can no longer remain silent. But, aside from the indiscriminate drone onslaught, what further action, if any, should be taken?
Unlike events in Egypt and Tunisia, where millions of protestors took to the streets, Yemen has seen considerably fewer demonstrators rally in dissension (approx 100,000-150,000). A large percentage of the population still supports President Saleh. Added to that, Yemen's oil supply is predicted to run out within the next decade and its economy bears little resemblance to its prosperous neighbour's Saudi Arabia and Oman. This would not be another oil-grabbing mission, as seen in Libya. Yemen is considered a friend of the West for its assiduous cooperation in the 'War on Terror'. In return, America and Europe donate tens of millions of dollars in aid; vital revenue that keeps Yemen afloat. However, less clear is Yemen's standing within the Middle East. Indifferent relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia make it hard to analyse where it is Yemen sit with regards to allegiance.
Whilst Saudi Arabia is considered a traditional friend of the West due to its vast oil resources, Saudi cut all ties with Yemen in 1990 following its support of Saddam Hussein during the Gulf War. Any western intervention in Yemen could potentially upset the Saudis. Nevertheless, Saleh's presence in Saudi Arabia since the uprisings suggest relations may be recovering. Moreover, Yemen's relations with Iran are not much better. Due to Iran's large influence over the majority of Shi'ites, Saleh fears a close relationship would upset his nation's majority Sunni population. This has led to an isolation that leaves Yemen alienated and without a powerful and unyielding regional ally.
Yemen finds itself somewhere between a rock and a hard place; as does the West. President Saleh has consistently stated that he and his family are the only people capable of keeping Yemen united. Whilst this is somewhat hyperbolic, it does represent a slither of truth. With such north/south divide and numerous splinter groups, Yemen would find it hard to remain unified and the West would not wish for another Iraq situation whereby, following intervention, a more combative climate materialised.
As various other Middle Eastern issues appear to be resolving themselves, the issue of Yemen may go on for some time. If Saleh were to remain in power, long-term civil war seems likely. If Saleh were to stand down, who exactly would run the country? With so many differing objectives among the opposition, it would only be a matter of time before trouble arose. But one thing is certain, Yemen can certainly consider itself the West's problematic Rubik's cube. As ever, America, Israel and Saudi Arabia hold all the aces.