The Tories are Fine as Long as Labour Keep Playing at Opposition

Ed Miliband and Labour strategists must be scratching their heads behind closed doors. Try as they might, and no matter what sticky situations the Government find themselves in, they seem unable to make a real dent in the polls.
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Ed Miliband and Labour strategists must be scratching their heads behind closed doors. Try as they might, and no matter what sticky situations the Government find themselves in, they seem unable to make a real dent in the polls. Labour seem stuck around 5-7% ahead in opinion polls, and it has been that way for a while.

The end of the Gordon Brown era was supposed to herald a new start for Labour. They would retreat, reform and advance forwards with new vigour and a sense of direction. Ed Miliband's arrival as party leader was relatively muted, and since then Labour have struggled to make an impact on the Coalition.

It's not been for lack of trying, and there's been no shortage of external elements which have been there for the taking. The eurozone crisis provided an opportunity for the opposition to really land some shots on David Cameron and his front-bench colleagues. Then there have been the u-turns, the ministerial complications (think Huhne, Lansley and the ill-fated Liam Fox) and perhaps most seriously the phone hacking scandal, with many senior Tories having links to those at News International.

Labour have, however, found it almost impossible to take advantage of these situations because they have at their helm two figures who are struggling to learn to be in opposition. Ed Miliband and Ed Balls both strike uncomfortable poses when debating in the Chamber.

Labour's leader is still struggling to find his feet and his message. He looks awkward when making speeches, and still stumbles over his pre-scripted words at Prime Minister's Questions.

He also seems to be finding it hard to accept that his party are not in power and will not be in power - barring some sort of catastrophe - for at least another two and a half years. Miliband seems to be trying to hurtle Labour toward some sort of early ascension of power, and is forgetting in the process to realise that one of the secrets of opposition is a long-term plan. The danger is that he runs out of steam halfway through the parliament and Labour have to elect a new leader shortly before an election.

At his side through much of this is Ed Balls, who is also struggling to get his message across. He is tarnished by being associated with the previous government and the deficit, and the public seem to be genuinely struggling to shake that from their minds every time he stands up. Whenever he lays down his fiscal policy, it is easy for George Osborne to simply say that you cannot get out of debt by borrowing more. That is the perfect soundbite, and makes Balls look out of touch. Osborne and Cameron are fond of saying that the shadow chancellor is one of biggest vote winners for the Coalition and they are right; as long as Ed Balls scraps his argument around, the Coalition look measured and determined.

There are some on the opposition benches who are demonstrating how to be in opposition. Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy are examples of shadow secretaries who are aware they are out of power for the long-haul and are making a decent job of holding the Government to account. There are also the 'rising stars' of the party, shadow ministers such as Chris Leslie and Chuka Umunna who have clear messages, are notably vocal at the right time and do not come across as petty and scrappy but dignified and sensible.

For the Coalition, this weakness could not have come at a better time. Were the opposition leader to be a stronger figure (dare I say David Miliband), Cameron and co. could be in trouble. Whilst the eurozone crisis is not the Prime Minister's fault, some decent arguments and a consistent, level-headed message could make him look weak. Ed Miliband has failed to take advantage of the u-turn fiascos the Government has put on a plate for him, but a stronger leader would surely have done better.

There is nothing to say that Miliband and Labour cannot turn themselves around and make themselves an effective opposition. They have the brains in the party, and the Government certainly has cracks to be exploited. A strategy and sense of direction could change things dramatically.

As it is at the moment, however, the Coalition can sleep easily at night knowing that, if anything, the opposition are playing into their hands. For Cameron, long may it continue. For Labour, the longer it continues, the longer they look like being out of power.