Those pushing Labour to back a second Brexit referendum are still divided on whether they think Jeremy Corbyn’s conversion is real or a mere party management tactic. Last night, shadow cabinet minister Barry Gardiner told Question Time of his doubts about a People’s Vote: “I’ve always been clear that I think it is divisive, I think it does undermine trust, but I now believe it is the only way that we have to stop no deal.” That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement, yet it’s a candid admission of just why many Corbyn supporters have been wary.
The next step in the tortuous process of Labour’s party conference policy on Brexit is to back a second referendum in Parliament. Yet the wording of any amendment, and its timing, is crucial to its success. The Guardian has an excellent story on backbencher Peter Kyle’s latest formulation, stressing that MPs would be ‘withholding support’ for May’s legislation unless the public was given a confirmatory vote. This is an attempt to meet the leadership’s objection that Labour can never back May’s deal itself, while somehow allowing the public a final say. “This ticks every single box and is the only credible proposal on the table right now,” Kyle tells the paper.
The problem is that such wording may not tick every single box. If the amendment really does withhold support from May’s legislation, then it kills her deal. If it approves her deal while expressing objections, would that be enough for Corbyn? I’m told a rival plan is for the party to change the order of business so that MPs get to vote first on May’s deal and then retain the right to amend it immediately afterwards. Labour would whip an abstension on the May plan (which would delight No.10 as it guarantees its passage even with Tory Brexiteer opposition), then whip for an amendment subjecting it to a public vote. It’s the age-old question of putting carts before horses, and it ain’t easy.
The other box that isn’t ticked is on timing. If this is all pushed by or before March 12, it looks too soon for many Labour MPs who worry about backing a second referendum. Some think that if the plan is tried, and fails, the chances of a public vote will be killed off for good. And they fear that’s the ultra cynical intention of the leadership (the leadership may counter that they’ve been told they’re dragging their feet and now when they act, they can’t win). Some would prefer Parliament to reject May’s plan, delay Brexit formally, then opt for a referendum as that famous ‘last resort’. The danger for Peoples Voters then is that a ‘Common Market 2.0’, which has a more natural majority across both parties, could well become the most attractive option. The Independent Group (with new ‘spokesman’ Chuka Umunna) may say more at its press conference today.
Things were quietening down yesterday on the Tory Brexit front, and then came George Eustice’s resignation in protest at May’s decision to allow a possible delay of Exit Day. The longest serving DEFRA minister and longstanding Eurosceptic penned a pretty devastating resignation letter. The best line was this: “I have stuck with the government through a series of rather undignified retreats. However, I fear that developments this week will lead to a sequence of events culminating in the EU dictating the terms of any extension requested and the final humiliation of our country.”
It felt like the First Tory law of Brexit - “every Remainer action has an equal and opposite Leaver reaction” - was reasserting itself. Lots of Brexiteers piled in to support him. And it emerged that it was Eustice who on Tuesday night warned May to her face that a delay would spell disaster for the party. The Speccie’s James Forsyth says the PM spluttered in reply: “I don’t just do what Olly Robbins tells me to.” Eustice is well liked on all sides of his party, and of Parliament, so his objections carry the extra weight of a mild-mannered man pushed over the brink.
It’s also a sharp reminder that pro-Brexit ministers and ministerial aides have to be kept on board as much as Remainers. By the way, some wondered at the timing of Eustice’s departure, thinking it looked odd for him to have had such a delayed reaction to Tuesday’s big shift by May. I’m told he had made up his mind to quit that day, but as an instinctive loyalist did not want to damage No.10 on the night. He agreed to the chief whip’s request to ‘sleep on it’ on Wednesday and then finally acted on Thursday. Eustice was scathing privately about the PM’s justification for her Brexit delay plan (which was to allow a delay herself rather than handing Parliament the power to force her to do so). He told friends: “She’s saved her control of the Order Paper, so that’s alright then? That’s what really matters?”
Dominic Raab paid tribute to Eustice on Today, but also made clear he (like Jacob Rees-Mogg) wasn’t dogmatic about changing the text of the withdrawal agreement (the alternative will go down in history as the ‘Cox codicil’ won’t it?). “The substance rather than the vehicle or the means or the label is what matters,” Raab said. That will have pleased No.10 despite a difficult few hours. Meanwhile, back in the world outside Westminster, voters in West Yorkshire told our HuffPost Listens tour that MPs should be denied their inflation-busting payrise until they sort Brexit.
Labour’s anti-semitism row isn’t going away. Tom Watson said yesterday that Luciana Berger’s departure was the ‘worst day of shame’ in his party’s 120-year history. Corbyn supporter Ash Sarkar made her own apology of sorts on Twitter, finally admitting the problem for much of the Left was a ‘defend now, think later’ approach to any criticism of Corbyn’s Labour. But last night it was obvious that people like Chris Williamson still have lots of defenders in local Labour parties. Hackney North (Diane Abbott’s constituency) passed a motion that suggested that racism including anti-semitism was caused by ‘the capitalist system’ and unemployment. Critics will think that sounds very much like excuse-making for anti-semitism (how many Jew haters are in well paid jobs?) The motion was passed by 45 votes to 35, despite Jewish members speaking against it. Momentum are pushing back on conspiracy theories and making clear their revulsion at anti-semitism, but there’s clearly a long way to go.
Today, we report on the Tories’ own race problem, with the party accused of failing to expel a party member accused of Islamophobia. Colin Raine, who organised a far-right protest outside the local office of Labour’s Helen Goodman,ranted on Facebook about “aggressive muzzies” who he claimed were praying in public to “provoke a reaction”.
Meanwhile, for those who voted Leave in the EU referendum to cut immigration, there was good news and bad yesterday. The Office for National Statistics said that an outflow of Eastern Europeans means that net migration from Europe has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. But at the same time the numbers coming to the UK from the rest of the world has soared to 261,000 — more than double the Prime Minister’s target of cutting net migration to below 100,000. No.10’s gloss was that the rise was evidence of the UK’s ability to attract skilled workers.
It’s Friday and spring is here, so check out this video of a toddler and some puppies
Chris Grayling’s reverse Midas touch is in the news again. Today’s National Audit Office report has a damning verdict on the former Justice Secretary’s ‘rushed’ part privatisation of the probation system in England and Wales. Not only has it cost taxpayers a whopping half a billion pounds in bailouts of private contracts, the number of recalls to prison has ‘skyrocketed’ (the verb of the usually dry NAO chief Amyas Morse, not a tabloid headline writer) by 47%.
The latest in our ‘What It’s Like To Lose Your…’ series features local library cuts. We talk to local campaigners trying to reopen a library in Pevensey Bay, East Sussex. Some 846 local libraries have closed since 2010. Yes, 846. Get your head round that statistic. As one expert puts it: “This is not normal. This is not ‘living within our means’. This is a wholesale assault on a vital civic institution that is, in turn, a vital part of the fabric of an equal, prosperous and inclusive society.”
COMMONS PEOPLE
Our latest #CommonsPeople podcast is out, featuring our favourite think tanker Anand Menon, of the UK in A Changing EU. Hear us chinwag about this week’s shifts on Brexit by May and Corbyn, Chris Williamson’s suspension, and whether membership of a political party is a right or a privilege. Click HERE to listen on Audioboom and below on iTunes.
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