So, it’s another huge Parliamentary day for Brexit. Or is it? Well, MPs are in the curious position of knowing that today’s Commons vote on the Withdrawal Agreement is just a stunt built around the symbolism of ‘Exit Day’, but also that if the vote passes then it really has massive consequences. It’s both unserious and serious at the same time.
What’s most striking to me is that many Labour MPs will end up voting against something they don’t really mind (their main focus is the future relations with the EU, not the divorce terms), and many Tory MPs will end up voting for something they really hate (the Northern Irish ‘backstop’ that ties the UK indefinitely to the EU). Instead what we will see today is one big blame game, as May tries to depict Labour as the party that wants to delay Brexit and hold a ludicrous set of European Parliament elections.
Given that the DUP haven’t been brought on board, today’s vote already looks doomed to be a dud. Nick Watt had a priceless quote from one Cabinet minister trying to work out the rationale of the PM in orchestrating another defeat for herself: “Fuck knows. I am past caring. It is like the living dead in here.” Yet there is a method in the apparent madness. With many arch Brexiteers reluctantly switching to back her, May can come out of today with a much smaller defeat that gives her some semblance of momentum.
If she can also show she’s making gains among Labour MPs in Leave areas, things will get even more interesting. Will the government finally give in to demands from such MPs for a vote on the future trade deal? Will they accept the Snell/Nandy amendment (which some in Labour mutter has been drafted by government whips), even though the Speaker just didn’t select it? Or will they leave that until the next big push next week? Liam Fox told the Today programme: “It’s really the last chance to vote for Brexit as we understood it, today.”
But for all the blather about today being a ‘last’ roll of the dice, with Theresa May there are always lots of ‘last’ chances. Today is just part of a gameplan to whittle the numbers down. Harry Cole shrewdly spotted that Gavin Williamson, who cooked up the original confidence and supply deal and is the one Tory minister they really trust, was once again wooing the Northern Irish party. Under the No.10 gameplan, the Commons fails to get agreement on Monday on a Letwin alternative, May uses the new hard deadline of April 12 to get the DUP and unlock all but about 15 Tory hardcore Brexiteers. Then Labour Leave MPs get the deal over the line. It may be deeply flawed, but it’s a plan of sorts.
The real chatter is that May will threaten a general election if she doesn’t get her way. I’m told ministers have privately been suggesting that if the deadlock persists next week, an election is inevitable. But the PM clearly can’t lead her party in that election, so God only knows how it would work. Meanwhile, here’s our piece on how today’s ‘Exit Day’ date was itself a product of a desperate short-term bid by No.10 in December 2017 to throw a bone to backbenchers.
Brussels has an increasing role in just what happens next in the Brexit process. And the EU now thinks the UK is facing a binary choice between no-deal and a long delay. BuzzFeed and others have the diplomatic note setting out that thinking in a briefing to EU ambassadors from the 27 states on Thursday.
EU and European government officials are adamant that if the deal doesn’t go through, and the UK asks for a longer extension before the April deadline, Britain will have to hold European Parliament elections in May. April 11 is the date by which the UK has to organise these elections and Liam Fox told Today that this would be the “new cliff-edge” date, should MPs fail to back the PM’s deal.
One source in No.10 tells me that Brexiteers really should be careful what they wish for on no-deal, because it’s looking likely that Brussels would still demand those things they hate: billions of pounds of UK cash and a backstop in Northern Ireland. No-deal prep is very much underway over the Channel, with Michel Barnier realising the Macron government is not bluffing, whereas Angela Merkel is doing everything she can to avoid the prospect.
And remember that for all her public protestations that no-deal would be far from ideal, some around May really think that when push comes to shove she would rather go down that route than choose a long extension and Euro elections. I’ve written about this before, but Robert Peston has a new blog in which he states “there is a view in Whitehall and among some ministers that it’s all about setting up a choice for the UK between a long Brexit delay and a no-deal Brexit on April 12”…and the PM is preparing to jump for no deal.”
Amid the mad chaos of this week, it’s sometimes easy to forget all the multiple plot lines. But not a single Tory MP has failed to grasp that after May’s big resignation announcement on Wednesday night, the party leadership race is already well under way. This morning, Iain Duncan Smith had the weary air of someone who knows all too well what it’s like to be ousted by a Tory backbench plot: “I won’t throw my hat into the ring. I’m probably the only person not throwing my hat in the ring.”
The Times’ Francis Elliott ran an excellent piece yesterday that May was considering holding off her final departure day until later this year, in order to allow a longer leadership race that would give outsider candidates more time and profile. Today, the FT says party chairman Brandon Lewis also favours a longer contest for that same reason. Sajid Javid’s odds have been cut among some MPs, with Jeremy Hunt emerging as the ex-Remain contender. Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab are rapidly becoming the ex-Leave frontrunners.
Raab is certainly well placed as a ‘next generation’ leader, but he has a big judgement call on whether to back May’s deal. In our CommonsPeople podcast, Nicky Morgan (who has ‘no desire and no intention’ of standing) tells us that opposing the PM’s deal would go down like a lead balloon among MPs. And under the two-stage process, MPs are the ones who decide who gets on the ballot paper of the wider membership. “Any Conservative MP who doesn’t vote for the prime minister’s draft agreement, I think will find it very difficult to get traction in the Conservative Party for their leadership bid,” Morgan tells us. “At the moment there is only one leadership candidate who is out there who is holding out - and that is Dominic Raab.” Boris Johnson’s decision to support May’s deal today (via Twitter) gives Raab a real opening, though.
But there’s a fascinating idea that’s also doing the rounds among Tory MPs: they join Corbyn in a no-confidence vote in the government, May is forced to step down, and in the 14 days under the Fixed Term Parliament Act needed to form a new government, they find a new Tory leader who then wins the second confidence vote. No general election needed, and a new PM is in place. I know it sounds unlikely (can you fast-track a Tory leadership race in that fortnight?), but Morgan confirmed she’d heard the same chatter in the tea rooms. You heard it here first, folks.
Lest we forget, Cyclone Idai has devastated Mozambique with flooding. Watch this drone footage that shows the true scale of the disaster.
In the Times, MI5 chief Sir Andrew Parker and Met chief Cressida Dick have an important joint article in which they set out how new pilot schemes for intelligence-sharing with the NHS and social service will help them tackle terrorist suspects using the multi-agency approach that currently targets sex offenders.
They also reveal they have been working with tech companies to enhance their data analytics and “sharpen our radar” in spotting the jump from former ‘subject of interest’ (around 20,000 people) to an active one (around 3,000). And while Islamist terrorism “predominates by scale” they are also concerned about the growing threat from other forms of violent hate ideologies from “the extreme right and left”.
The FT splashes on a fascinating development in the long-running saga of security fears around Chinese telecoms firm Huawei. The UK watchdog set up to monitor products supplied by the firm has issued a dire warning over the risks it poses. The oversight board, which is chaired by the head of GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre, said it would be “difficult to appropriately risk-manage future products in the context of UK deployments, until Huawei’s software engineering and cyber security processes are remediated”.
The board said it had not found any evidence of Chinese state-backed espionage or “back doors” in Huawei’s technology. Its findings were more “about basic engineering competence and cyber security hygiene that give rise to vulnerabilities”. But with the comms giant trying to dominate 5G technology markets, it’s something ministers are very, very worried about.
COMMONS PEOPLE
Our latest #CommonsPeople podcast is out. This week’s guests @NickyMorgan01 and @ThimontJack chat through the Tory leadership race, Brexit Plan Bs and more. For once, I did OK in the weekly quiz too.
If you’re reading this on the web, sign-up HERE to get the WaughZone delivered to your inbox.
Got something you want to share? Please send any stories/tips/quotes/pix/plugs/gossip to Paul Waugh(paul.waugh@huffingtonpost.com), Ned Simons (ned.simons@huffingtonpost.com), Rachel Wearmouth (rachel.wearmouth@huffpost.com) and Jasmin Gray (jasmin.gray@huffpost.com) and Arj Singh (arj.singh@huffpost.com)