Talks on Brexit between the government and opposition restart today, but few on either side are expecting much real progress. There will be a ‘plenary’ session with big hitters Philip Hammond and David Lidington meeting John McDonnell and Keir Starmer, yet with the local elections on Thursday and the Euros looming later this month, everyone knows attention is focused elsewhere. On BBC Scotland’s Debate Night last night, shadow Scottish secretary Lesley Laird was asked if there would be a breakthrough this week. She replied: “I wouldn’t be holding my breath on that.”
The real tension within Labour is of course over their own policy position on a second referendum. As we revealed last week, an almighty row kicked off over the party’s draft Euro election leaflet and we can expect more pressure applied at the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) meeting tonight. With the crunch NEC meeting tomorrow due to decide what goes in the European manifesto, the wording is crucial. Few in Labour talk of a ‘People’s Vote’ these days, let alone a ‘second referendum’. Instead it’s aIl about a ‘confirmatory ballot’. And I’m told a confirmatory ballot on a Tory Brexit, rather than a confirmatory ballot on any Brexit, is where the NEC is heading.
Some in the People’s Vote campaign will be able to live with the milder formulation as it’s a lot better than no mention at all. And with Momentum-backed CLP reps holding a key chunk of the votes on the NEC, founder Jon Lansman’s views matter. He tweeted yesterday the precise wording of that infamous composite policy from Labour’s conference, pointing out the nuance many missed at the time. The composite said that if the government are confident in their Brexit deal “they should not be afraid to put that deal to the public”. ‘That deal’ means the May deal.
We report today that 22 Labour MEP candidates (including their leader Richard Corbett) have signed a personal pledge to campaign “to give the people the final say, with a referendum that offers a choice between a Brexit deal and the option to Remain in the EU”. Note the wording ‘a Brexit deal’ (not just a Tory one). Yet there’s a palpable lack of enthusiasm among some in the shadow cabinet for anything that goes beyond the conference wording. Both Becky Long-Bailey and Andrew Gwynne (like fellow North West MP Angie Rayner) made that plain on the Sunday shows. (Former new Labour spad Darren Murphy has his own take on why some on the Left like Brexit).
Meanwhile, former European trade commissioner Pascal Lamy has told the Today programme it was a mistake for both the UK and the EU not to run their talks on a ‘divorce’ deal (the withdrawal agreement) and talks on a future trade deal (the political declaration) in parallel. As much as Brexiteers loathe Eurocrats like Lamy, many think he has a point. Which is why, if this thing isn’t sorted by Halloween, some Brexiteers could come round to a longer extension to Article 50 that allows the two things to be hammered out side by side. The EU would lose some leverage but may just want a quieter life that leads to a more certain outcome. Stranger things have happened, but a long delay (allowing more time for a ‘clean Brexit’) could possibly unite the Tory party, the Labour party and even Parliament. I know, it sounds daft.
The Tory party really is on course for some serious losses in the local elections this Thursday. But it’s worth remembering that even away from the Brexit mess they would have found it difficult to hang on to seats won four years ago when David Cameron was in his pomp (yes, it was the same day as his 2015 general election victory, targeting and wiping out many Lib Dem seats).
And nine years into a Tory-led government, a lethal cocktail of low turnout, Brexit anger, revived Lib Dems, hyper-local independents and Thunberg-friendly Greens could make Friday’s results very tough indeed. In areas like Trafford, Labour could even win a majority. Tory peer and pollster Lord Hayward reckons his party could lose 800 seats. Which on any reading would prompt ‘meltdown’ headlines.
The Conservatives have been managing expectations. Deputy chair Helen Whateley told Sky’s Sophy Ridge “there is a lot of anger about”. Priti Patel told Westminster Hour “the mood is dark, the public are frustrated”. The local elections may just be the starter course before the main meal of the Euro election meltdown for the Tories. Party chair Brandon Lewis ducked on Marr whether his party would even stage a campaign launch and it’s obvious few activists want to help with time or money. A new HopeNotHate/YouGov poll found Nigel Farage’s Brexit party is on course to win 29 MEPs, Labour 18, the Conservatives 10, Greens 4, Change UK 3, Lib Dems 2, UKIP 0, and SNP 4.
In Europe until now it has often been parties of the left that have split in the face of populist surges. But Spain’s election shows how support for parties of the right can fracture too. The once healthy People’s Party slumped to just 66 seats, slashed from 137 in the last Parliament. The centre-right Citizens and far-right Vox parties ate lots of the PP’s vote, while the Socialists gobbled up what remained. Corbyn-friendly Pedro Sanchez, described as the ‘accidental prime minister’, is on a roll. No wonder Tory MPs fear this scenario could be repeated in the UK if Farage’s Brexit party were to dare stand in a general election.
Just days after Labour launched its social care plans, ex-Tory Cabinet minister Damian Green is pushing his own solution with a pension-style scheme that could include a national insurance hike on the over-50s and taxing things like the winter fuel allowance. Green got the full 8.10am Today programme treatment (some in Labour mutter that their own proposals didn’t get the same attention) as he said a ‘sliver’ of the “huge raft of housing wealth” among the older generations could tackle the demographic timebomb.
In theory, taxing the rich might be seen as a good idea by many in Labour. But when that comes up against the principle of universal benefits and the need to win the grey vote, John McDonnell is proving he will pounce on any hint of an attack on pensioners’ incomes. “Theresa May’s top ally and close adviser has today let the cat out of the bag about Tory intentions to punish older people with a tax on getting old. After nearly a decade of brutal cuts to social care, the Tories now want to make older people pay through increased taxes,” he said this morning. Looking for cross-party consensus on social care? You can forget it, right now.
As with the narrative on police cuts, Labour’s line on pensioners squeezes its anti-austerity message even tighter, just as the Tories are hoping to move on from it with a new spending review. Speaking of the thin blue line though, shadow policing minister and Line of Duty fan Louise Haigh last night tweeted: “If Ted Hastings is a bent copper I want the entire BBC abolished.” Ah, but that’s what ‘H’ would say, wouldn’t they….?
Watch these three professional footballers take on 100 schoolchildren in a football match.
As I wrote last week, one thing that is unnerving several people in government is the idea of the two-year session of Parliament ending soon, and along with it the need to renew the DUP confidence-and-supply deal and draft a full Queen’s speech for the next two years. The Times’ Francis Elliott reports on a cunning plan to avoid the problem by simply extending the current session to the autumn. As No.10 scrambles to keep MPs busy over the summer, we could see bills on animal cruelty, domestic abuse and tenants’ rights.
The fact that no one has been sacked or resigned over the Huawei leak so far suggests that either there’s insufficient evidence to identify the culprit or that a political source has been identified (it’s so much easier to take action against civil servants than to demand politicians hand over their private phone call details). Jeremy Hunt, on a trip to Africa, tells the Telegraph: “I would be very happy for anyone to look at my phone, as would my trusted special adviser,” Hunt says. That sounded like a challenge to fellow ministers to do the same.
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