Way back in the mists of time when a UK government had a massive majority, Alastair Campbell used to ridicule the media’s focus on ‘processology’ rather than policy. But when future historians assess Brexit, they may well realise that process and Parliamentary procedure have been as important as the policy itself. Cameron’s referendum question, Theresa May’s triggering the two-year Article 50 countdown, David Davis’s crucial decision to allow the EU to separate our ‘divorce’ from a future trade deal, all have led us to where we are today.
And having squandered her majority in a snap election, the PM has also repeatedly lost control of the Commons process of delivering her own Brexit deal. The very fact that her future rests on a ‘meaningful vote’, rather than a piece of legislation, is yet another lesson that process really matters.
Today, as the Cabinet meets to work out the next steps, sequencing is once again crucial. Will May and her ministers decide to outflank Parliament and give it a series of votes on Plan B alternatives to her Brexit deal? With everyone from the DUP to Tory Brexiteers to Labour backbenchers saying ‘You go first’, will anyone dare make the first move? It’s notable that amid all the confusion, backers of May’s deal, of a second referendum and of a softer Brexit have all been gaming this on the assumption that their favoured option will win only if all the others have been rejected first.
Most ministers are certainly nervous about the fresh attempt by Letwin-Grieve-Benn-Lamb-Hosie-Lake (which sounds like a City law firm or Trumpton’s fire brigade, depending on your mood) to seize control of the timetable, although some actively welcome it. Some in government think the canny thing to do today is to grant the Commons its ‘indicative’ votes (though not use that term) first, wait for the Commons to again fail to agree, and then bring the PM’s deal back later this week. It would be a risky game for both sides, and some Brexiteers would be splenetic if their own government somehow facilitated a softer Brexit, but all options look risky right now. A further complication is whether Speaker Bercow will ever allow a ‘meaningful vote 3’ to take place.
Sir Oliver Letwin is seen by some ministers and Labour MPs as a voice of sanity. But many Brexiteers view him as even more dangerous than Dominic Grieve, precisely because they think his real agenda is a soft Brexit-in-name-only. Ex-No10 aide Nikki da Costa let slip her frustration with Letwinism, telling our Commons People podcast this week: “Oliver Letwin, this is the man that the chief whip consulted time and time again and sort of co-opted as some sort of substitute minister, and many things were ruled out on Oliver’s say-so, contributing to the situation that we are now in…I’m sorry when Oliver Letwin comes forward with something, I’m not particularly minded to say that is the perfect judgment.” Ouch. Letwin himself on the Today programme seemed unkeen on one procedural innovation though (floated in talks by David Lidington): run-off votes to force a choice on MPs.
The strange thing is that for all the talk of coups and chaos, there are still some dogged optimists in government who think she can get her deal through. They think the DUP can finally come on board, that Iain Duncan Smith (and even Dom Raab) has been edging towards a reluctant endorsement and that some Labour MPs in Leave areas can play a key role, with all of them united in not wanting a long delay to Brexit. Let’s see how that Cabinet meeting goes, and whether the PM leads or follows in her Commons statement this afternoon.
After pyrrhic victory in the Tory leadership contest last December (don’t forget 37% of her MPs voted to dump her), the PM seems inured by now to calls for her to step aside. Still, it’s extraordinary that her own whips have in recent days been suggesting she resigns. Mild-mannered senior whip Paul Maynard (who has been tipped to replace Sarah Newton as the new disabilities minister) told May to her face she should go because she was “betraying Brexit” and “destroying our party”, the Sunday Times reported.
The ‘coup’ threat mentioned in both the Sunday Times and Mail on Sunday appeared to fizzle out as soon as it came into contact with daylight yesterday (though some MPs think the coup has merely been ‘parked’). Both David Lidington and Michael Gove naturally pledged their support, with the former suggesting it was frankly ridiculous to think he wanted to become PM. Some Remainer ministers suspect the whole idea of a coup was put up by Brexiteers to discredit both Lidington and Gove, but whatever the truth, many want May to be much clearer on her own future.
Don’t forget that it was May herself who put her job on the line when she said last week “As Prime Minister, I’m not prepared to delay Brexit any further than 30th June”. The EU effectively turned that deadline day into April 12, the date by which Parliament would have to pass legislation for the UK to take part in the European elections. As Liam Fox told Today, that April date is ‘the hard deadline’: “I’m not sure there are many people in the House of Commons who fancy that particular meeting with voters…There’s nothing like a bit of self interest to concentrate minds.”
There’s no question that Cabinet discipline has broken down to an extraordinary degree. Yesterday, Chancellor Philip Hammond backed indicative votes and said a second referendum was “a perfectly coherent proposition and it deserves to be considered.” Within minutes, Brexit secretary Steve Barclay was saying that in fact a general election was the likely outcome of the impasse, suggesting he and others would rather trigger that than accept a long Brexit delay. Given May can’t lead her party into another election, that Tory leadership election could come sooner rather than later.
The latest crack in collective responsibility is foreign office minister Mark Field announcing that if May’s deal fails then he’s prepared to revoke Article 50 and halt the Brexit process altogether. “I appreciate that is probably a minority view,” he told Radio 4’s Westminster Hour. But this wasn’t an off the cuff remark. I’ve been passed his letter to constituentsfrom Friday in which he said exactly the same thing.
A million on the streets on Saturday and five million online certainly showed there’s a sizeable chunk of the public determined to either stop Brexit or demand a second referendum. Labour’s position on a People’s Vote often resembles a shape-shifting kaleidoscope, but with deputy leader Tom Watson addressing the rally yet Cabinet office shadow Jon Trickett suggested a new poll would cause further division in the country.
What was really fascinating was hearing Keir Starmer on Marr suggest that Labour could fight a snap general election with a pledge for new referendum in its manifesto. Referring to party policy, he said: “I would expect our manifesto to build on those commitments, both in relation to the type of deal and a public vote”. He said “no one should doubt” his commitment to the policy adopted at party conference, that a referendum would remain an option. Starmer is due to address the PLP tonight.
Liam Fox reminded everyone this morning that much of the current row is about what the future trade deal will look like and that is a separate matter from May’s withdrawal agreement. That’s why we should keep an eye on Lisa Nandy’s plan for Parliament to have a fresh vote on that trade deal, a plan that could indeed deliver some Labour MPs in Leave areas, if May is bold enough to go for it (could that be the curveball in her oral statement today?)
Still, as we reported last night, Labour MPs and unions are unhappy at what they see as May backing off her pledges to boost workers’ rights post-Brexit. Last week, ministers slipped out a delay to plans to repeal the ‘Swedish derogation’ that currently prevents agency workers from getting the same pay as permanent staff.
Watch a houseproud mouse tidy up a bloke’s garden shed
The Guardian has an excellent scoop that 15 Tory councillors who were suspended over posting Islamophobic or racist content online have had their membership quietly reinstated. It seems that some cases are handled locally rather than nationally, a fact that may well have to change. Liam Fox told Today “there is no place for racism of any sort in the Conservative party”.
Labour’s general secretary Jennie Formby has offered to freeze her own salary (believed to be more than £110,000 though some say it’s as high as £135k) to avoid the threat of an embarrassing strike by her party’s own HQ staff. An above-inflation pay rise has also been offered to end the long-running negotiations. This morning, Formby has written to MPs and peers to announce she has breast cancer and will hand over some duties to party directors while receiving treatment. The messages of support have flooded in across the labour movement.
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