After the drama, the dull stuff. Yesterday, Westminster was a hothouse of tension and anger, with the first tied vote in 25 years followed by a late-night, one-vote victory for Yvette Cooper’s bill to force a Brexit extension. Today, things could be much calmer, though no less important.
The House of Lords could see much chuntering (the red benches are so sedate, a harrumph counts as a shout) as Eurosceptics try to filibuster Cooper’s revolutionary legislation. Expect a few Tory MPs to cheer them on at the bar of the House. Away from the cameras, ’technical’ talks between Labour and Tory ministers and officials begin in earnest too. Straight after Brexit Questions, I understand Keir Starmer and Steve Barclay will head to 70 Whitehall (to be joined by David Lidiington) to go through the really tough business of trying to find common ground.
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn last night set the ball rolling. Their 100 minutes of talks saw a rehearsal of positions on things like a customs union (see below), as well as a telling focus by the two chief whips on procedure and the deliverability of each of their flocks in key votes. But one area that will get Tory MPs really choking on their cornflakes is that May didn’t dismiss out of hand the idea of a second referendum.
Starmer, Brown and Corbyn all raised the prospect of a ‘confirmatory’ ballot. The heresy of a referendum has been uttered in private by Lidington and aides like Gavin Barwell (now seen by MPs as in the ascendency over the more Brexity Robbie Gibb). But it was Chancellor Philip Hammond who put rocket boosters on the Tory case for a ‘People’s Vote’ last night, when he became the first senior minster to float the prospect.
For his part, Corbyn is under real pressure not to water down his party’s commitment to a ‘public vote’. Party Kremlinologists were busy pointing out his latest mantra (“the option of a public vote to prevent crashing out or leaving on a bad deal”) is not as strong as Starmer’s line that a referendum should be held on any deal, not just a bad Tory one. The latter version was actually subject to a three-line whip last week too.
Emily Thornberry was in hospital tending a sick family member so couldn’t be in Parliament yesterday. Yet her leaked note to the Shadow Cabinet (the Guardian had it first) made clear she was now very much in the Starmer camp. Could her conversion to the cause (only a few weeks ago she sounded very sceptical) be linked not just to intense pressure from her local party, but also lots of CLPs across the country? Put it this way: her new stance won’t harm her chances in a future leadership race against, say, Angela Rayner (who is still very worried about a referendum). Just as significant, the trade union Unison joined the GMB in backing a People’s Vote. It still lacks the MP numbers, but is the tide turning?
A referendum is of course a process rather than an actual policy. And the main favourite for a Commons majority on a Plan B Brexit remains some kind of customs union (though it may not end up being called that). Hammond, outspoken again on ITV’s Peston, suggested it was a way out of the deadlock.
Perhaps more importantly, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox made clear in his Laura Kuenssberg interview that actually a customs union was pretty viable and “not some kind of sell-out” that some backbenchers (er, and his own PM) had suggested. It’s one thing for a Remainer like Hammond to back a customs deal, but a big move for a Brexiteer like Cox.
And, bang on cue, even the DUP seem to be warming to the idea. Jeffrey Donaldson told BBC Newsline in Northern Ireland that a time-limited customs union could be a ‘temporary staging post’. The main drawback is that Labour is adamant it wants a permanent customs union (and the EU may have a problem with a temporary one), but it’s a straw in the wind of compromise.
Not everyone on the left is over the moon about a customs union, bare-bones Brexit. Larry Elliott in the Guardian points out that in reality the union hasn’t given much of a boost to British trade. “Those who argue that Britain would be better off negotiating its own trade deals have a point, because the EU is not especially interested in liberalising where it is weak but the UK is strong – services…The customs union works well for German carmakers and French farmers, who have a captive market for their products, but has not delivered anything like the same benefits for the UK.” Expect that to be quoted by Tory MPs in coming days.
Speaking of which, it’s hard to overstate the sheer anger among many Tory MPs (and not the usual suspects) at the fact that May is even talking about the unholy trinity of a customs union, a referendum and a long delay (see below). Yesterday’s two resignations may just be the start. The Sun picks up that 15 Brexiteer ministers could quit if May announces next week she would be bound by a Commons vote on any of the toxic options. Of course, the PM has factored that into her calculations - and the gamble is that not many in Cabinet will walk out. Asked if the UK would still have an independent trade policy after Brexit as he left a meeting of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, Liam Fox told HuffPost UK: “What does it say in our manifesto?”
The drama of last night’s votes in the Commons was indeed intense. As it happens, it seems the tied vote on Hilary Benn’s amendment (for indicative votes on Monday) only served to help the Cooper-Letwin cause, as it proved just how tight things were. The one-vote margin for Cooper’s bill is as thin as it gets. A win is a win, of course, when it comes to legislation. But Tory Mark Francois had a valid point when he said a one-vote margin doesn’t feel like “the long term settled will of the House of Commons”.
The action switches to the Lords today as Cooper’s bill races to get Royal Assent by the close of play. Things will start at 11.35am, with its first reading, then a ‘SO46 motion’. It could be the evening by the time we get Report Stage and some Brexiteer peers are limbering up for a filibuster. Will the Remainer-dominated Lords even change their usual procedures and guillotine debate if things look like going very late?
The bill should go through however. And that means that Corbyn will be in a much stronger negotiating position with May. The prospect of her being forced into a long extension of Article 50 could give him an invaluable insurance policy to avoid being bounced into any ‘collusion’ with the PM. I know that one former senior civil servant with No.10 contacts texted a Labour contact on Tuesday to say ‘tell Jeremy, this is a trap’. The chat is that the Brexiteers in Cabinet only agreed the big offer to Corbyn because it would tie him to a Tory Brexit itself. Let’s see.
Watch these German ducks do the German thing of pedestrians rigidly obeying traffic lights.
Given how intense the Brexit debate is, today has a timely warning from a senior police chief that politicians and campaigners should take care not to “inflame” tensions.The Metropolitan Police Service’s Assistant Commissioner, Martin Hewitt, said people should think carefully to avoid inciting others to violence. Police have 10,000 officers ready to deploy at 24 hours’ notice as part of possible no-deal Brexit preparations.
Meanwhile, after Huw Merriman’s Brexit stress diet saw him shed the pounds, it seems Whitehall is suffering too. British civil servants have been offered specialised support to deal with the strain of preparing for a no-deal Brexit, the BBC has learned. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) spent £40,000 on counselling services in London, York and Bristol. The government said the wellbeing of its staff was “always a priority”.
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