No.10 has long been prepared for the ‘betrayal narrative’ on the road to Brexit. And yesterday, after David Davis and Michel Barnier agreed the guts of a transition deal, there was no shortage of anger among some Brexiteers at the compromises: on an Irish border ‘backstop’, on EU citizens’ rights, on free movement not ending in March 2019, on continuing to abide by all EU rules. But some of the greatest anger was on fishing rights as the UK will not after all ‘take back control’ of its waters.
Scottish Tory MPs, as well as Michael Gove, are feeling very bruised indeed. Douglas Ross, normally a mild-mannered Clark Kent of the backbenches, became a Brexit Superman as he compared the deal to drinking ‘a pint of cold sick’. PolHome has the scoop that Chief Whip Julian Smith infuriated Tory backbenchers yesterday when he told them bluntly to stop moaning because ‘it’s not like fishermen are going to vote Labour’. Well, they have in the past in various coastal towns, and voted the SNP in Scotland in big numbers too. Smith is right Labour isn’t offering UKIP solutions for our trawlers (the SNP aren’t either), but we’re told Cornish MP Sheryll Murray still “ripped him a new one” for his arrogance.
Scots Tory MPs’ shop steward John Lamont said he would vote against any final Brexit deal that didn’t have the UK taking control of its fish stocks. But that’s the point – a final deal is what matters most to Brexiteers. Jacob Rees-Mogg tells the Telegraph that he will join Murray and others on fishing boat on Wednesday. He’s expected to “throw a box of haddock, skate and bass into the Thames to draw attention to Mrs. May’s alleged betrayal.” He has since backtracked on LBC: “I am not throwing fish anywhere. I am not a fish thrower. I think this has got slightly out of hand.”
On Newsnight last night, Moggy said the DD/Barnier transition plan was “a very unsatisfactory agreement - not just on fish”. But he had this crucial caveat: “The only thing that makes it acceptable is the hope that it is leading to a proper Brexit at the end of 2020. Many of us can swallow a good deal that is unsatisfactory in the transition if it leads to a proper Brexit in the end.” Many Leavers are just delighted that the transition period has been shortened from two years to 21 months. We will be fully, really ‘out’ on December 31, 2020. A stinker of a deal on fishing rights may taste like cod liver oil, but it’s for the health of the nation long term, Downing Street hopes.
And the fact is that given the demise of UKIP (underscored by it now being just two weeks away from financial ruin after a libel ruling), May strongly believes she can keep the Brexiteers on board. The thing about promises of ‘jam tomorrow’ is that they sometimes work. Just look at the Sun (and Daily Mail) leader article this morning, declaring “Brexit transition deal is NOT a betrayal” and compromise is needed. Welcome to The Rolling Stones Brexit: “You can’t always get what you want/But if you try sometimes well you just might find/You get what you need”. The big battle – for Tory Leavers and Remainers alike – will be over the final deal. And there are hints from some in Government (I’ll have more on this later) that ‘no deal’ is still a weapon they will deploy if either Parliament or Brussels cuts up rough later this year. Aides of the PM say she’s got the guts for a big fight.
Meanwhile, May is trying to get on with non-Brexit matters. She will be worried by a new prediction of a Tory ‘meltdown’ in London’s council elections, but cheered that outside London the Tories could do better than some expect. I note on the Order Paper some written ministerial statements on “safeguarding in the aid sector” and “corporate governance”. Jeremy Hunt will set out more hints of his social care plans in a speech. For its part, Labour obviously believes it is driving the narrative on domestic policy. Today, its local government chief Nick Forbes blogs for us on a new plan to ensure councils are properly funded ‘On Day One’ of a Labour government. The Resolution Foundation says it’s time to reform council tax. Away from Brexit, life goes on. And so does Theresa May.
The National Security Council meets today to decide on what further steps the UK should take in retaliation for Russia’s retaliation at our retaliation over the Salisbury poisonings. Britain expected the tit-for-tat expulsion of 23 of our diplomats after we kicked out 23 of theirs (they and their families pack their bags today). The closing down of the British Council and our consulate in St Petersberg was classic Putin, notching up the ante.
The Sun says one option open to ministers is to close down to Russia’s Trade Delegation in Highgate, London, long suspected by MI5 to be another front for Moscow’s spying operation. But to misquote David Cameron, will the PM decide too many tits make a tat? If we retaliate again, there’s no question Moscow will take some further measures and this may be a diplomatic game where Putin decides he has to be seen having the last word.
Jeremy Corbyn, meanwhile, has not had the last word on Labour’s response to the nerve agent attacks. In an interview with Radio 4’s World at One programme, he studiously refuses to repeat John McDonnell’s claim that “this is highly likely this could be state execution”. Instead, Corbyn replied: “I think John put the case there that it’s highly likely that there’s Russian involvement in it.”
On wider relations, the Labour leader said: “Would I do business with Putin, sure? And I’d challenge him on human rights in Russia, challenge him on these issues and challenge him on that whole basis of that relationship.” Now on one obvious level that is not much different from the PM’s “engage but beware” approach. Yet Labour MPs will detect a pro-Soviet sympathy when Corbyn makes a point of adding: “Russia is a huge country that suffered more than anyone else in the Second World War”. His strong belief that Moscow has for years provided a useful counterbalance to Washington is not one he’ll ever give up.
The Cambridge Analytica story certainly took off yesterday with Channel 4 News’ undercover report of its boss Alexander Nix bragging about honey traps and other dirty tricks used to win political campaigns. One of my favourite quotes was this admission: “It sounds a dreadful thing to say but these are things that don’t necessarily need to be true, as long as they’re believed.” Fake News, 2018 style.
In an attempt to spin his way out of it, Nix appeared on Newsnight (despite not having seen the Channel 4 report) to claim he was the victim of a coordinated media campaign. Yet his most telling line was that “we spoke with a certain amount of hyperbole”. Many suspect CA has been conning gullible clients by bragging about claims of data mining and dark arts. But things turned serious last night when the Information Commissioner Elizabeth Denham said she was seeking a warrant to raid the offices of CA.
The really shocking news came when DCMS committee chair Damian Collins tweeted that “Facebook have confirmed that auditors and legal counsel acting on behalf of the company were in the offices of Cambridge Analytica this evening until they were told to stand down by the Information Commissioner”. And that was after Facebook shares took a $35bn battering yesterday.
Let’s see how Digital Secretary Matt Hancock responds to the latest Cambridge Analytica news. There’s a timely FT profile of him that points out just how few backbenchers he has on board, mainly because of his unashamed ambition. Yet Hancock is ‘maxing’ out his leverage and powers to get things done (maybe even that £2 fixed odds stake). And he’s just 39.
Tony Blair is calling on next month’s Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting to back the Clearly campaign to give glasses to poor people with poor vision. It’s the world’s largest unaddressed disability with 900 million Commonwealth citizens affected. Watch Blair and other big names across all parties and walks of life don their own specs (and then funny pairs) to help out.
To paraphrase Bob Marley, yesterday was the ‘exodus’, today is the movement of Jez people. As we first revealed on HuffPost, there was a co-ordinated wave of ‘rolling resignations’ of senior staff from Labour’s HQ, on the eve of the expected appointment of Unite’s Jennie Formby as the party’s new general secretary. My phone was stuffed with texts, emails and other messages from people who felt the loss of John Stolliday, Simon Jackson, Neil Fleming and the others really marked a big changing of the guard. One staffer told me: “Between them these staff have over 80 years of experience working for the party. There’s now virtually no senior member of staff with experience of being in government.”
But sources close to Corbyn countered that these were just six staff out of 420 and that when a general secretary retires it’s ‘entirely normal’ for there to be a big churn. The ruling NEC meets today to decide between Formby and her sole rival Christine Blower and no one expects the puff of white smoke to be a surprise (Blower joined Labour only around 18 months ago, some claim). The Times’s Rachel Sylvester today quotes one centrist MP thus: “The question we keep asking ourselves is can we save the Labour Party or should we do something else?”
But although some moderates think Corbyn’s Russia response was a tipping point, it’s not been a quitting point just yet. In a strange way, they are like Tory Eurosceptics biting their tongues because they hope they’ll get their way one day. The big difference is that the Brexiteer backbenchers now have a clear Exit Day to look forward to. Labour’s moderates are like Mr Micawber, just hoping something will turn up.
On a normal day, this should have led the news. Monday was not a normal day. But last night the House of Commons Commission did something pretty significant in ordering an independent inquiry into allegations that MPs – including Speaker Bercow – have bullied Parliamentary staff. Bercow normally chairs the Commission’s Monday meetings but had to step aside while the group of Westminster’s most senior figures decided on next steps.
Crucially, the non-MP members of the Commission (its “non-executive” members Dame Janet Gaymer and Jane McCall) will now draft the terms of reference, along with whoever is appointed as an ‘independent’ chair of the inquiry. Staff are still wary, and civil servants union chief Dave Penman says the probe must deal with individual allegations against MPs to avoid being a ‘whitewash’. The ball is now firmly in the court of the non-exec members. This could all be a crafty way of avoiding blame if the independent figures decide on less radical action. Or it could lead to something much bigger.
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