Theresa May has been dealt yet another blow after the Commons Speaker John Bercow refused to select amendments to her Brexit deal that could have softened the blow of her likely defeat on Tuesday evening.
Bercow has become embroiled in near open warfare with Tory MPs over his chairing of the Commons amid accusations from Brexiteers that he has a pro-Remain bias, which he strongly denies.
Ahead of the crunch vote on May’s Brexit deal, Bercow selected four amendments tabled by backbench MPs for debate and vote which reshape the PM’s deal.
The proposals May had hoped could strengthen her hand in further negotiations with the EU after her deal is likely voted down – in particular over the controversial Irish border backstop – were not picked by the Speaker.
Bercow instead selected two Tory backbench amendments on the backstop and standard opposition amendments from Labour, as well as the SNP, together with Plaid Cymru.
The PM had hoped that she would be able to accept Tory ex-minister Sir Hugo Swire’s amendment to give MPs a vote on whether to enter the backstop arrangement, aimed at preventing a hard border in Northern Ireland in the event of no trade deal being struck with the EU.
May will spend the rest of the day holding last-ditch talks with Tory MPs to try and persuade them to support her, but she looks to be heading towards a crushing defeat this evening, when MPs vote at around 8pm.
She told her cabinet earlier today that she would respond “quickly” to the result, amid expectations of some kind of immediate statement in the Commons.
She was widely believed to have been covertly backing a plan by another former minister, Andrew Murrison, to approve the deal subject to a “legal codicil” being added specifying a December 31, 2021 end-date to the backstop.
May is thought to have hoped she could get enough votes on these from Tory MPs who otherwise oppose her deal, to send a message to the EU that fresh concessions could unlock majority support in the Commons.
But that plan has now fallen by the wayside.
Underlining the troubled for the PM, Sir Hugo said the “non-selection” of his and Murrison’s amendments made “the government’s challenge harder to convince those of us who are still concerned about the implications of the backstop”.
Replying as he opened the last day of debate, Attorney General Sir Geoffrey Cox said the backstop was “a risk that was acceptable to take”.
The four amendments will be voted on from 7pm, so the meaningful vote on May’s deal is likely to come around 8pm.
What are the Brexit deal amendments picked by Commons Speaker John Bercow and what time will they be voted on?
Labour frontbench amendment in the name of Jeremy Corbyn (7pm)
What it does: Rejects the withdrawal agreement and framework for the future relationship and sets out Labour’s preferred deal, including a customs union and “strong single market deal”.
What it could mean: Very little as it will not pass, but gives Labour an opportunity to put forward their alternative.
SNP and Plaid Cymru frontbench amendment in the name of Ian Blackford (around 7.15pm)
What it does: Rejects the withdrawal agreement and framework for the future relationship and calls for an extension of the Article 50 exit process to avoid Britain leaving the EU with no deal.
What it could mean: Again, very little, but gives the Scottish and Welsh parties a chance to express the rejections of the deal in the Scottish parliament and Welsh assembly.
The Sir Edward Leigh backstop amendment (around 7.30pm)
What it does: Approves the deal as long as the government agrees to terminate the backstop “if it becomes clear by the end of 2021” that the EU will not agree to its removal. Sets out that this will be legal under the Vienna convention on the law of treaties, which says any sovereign state can repeal part of an international treaty if there is a “fundamental change in circumstances”.
What it could mean: Unlikely to garner government support or be approved by MPs as it sets conditions on the government which contradict the withdrawal agreement and does not in any way strengthen May’s hand in further talks with the EU. Questions have also been raised over the legal interpretation of the Vienna convention.
The John Baron backstop amendment (around 7.45pm)
What it does: Tabled by Leaver opponent of the deal John Baron, this backs the deal but only if the legally binding withdrawal agreement is amended so Britain has a unilateral right to terminate the backstop.
What it could mean: This could be backed by Tory switchers but is unlikely to ever wring a concession from the EU, and is not backed by the government.