Tories Heading For Electoral Wipeout As New Poll Predicts 250-Seat Labour Majority

And the final result could be even worse for the Conservatives.
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Rishi Sunak arrives for the launch of the Scottish Conservative manifesto in Edinburgh earlier today.
Ken Jack via Getty Images

Labour is on course for a 250-seat Commons majority, according to yet another poll predicting wipeout for the Tories.

The Focaldata survey forecast that the Conservatives are set to lose a staggering 262 seats on July 4, leaving the party with just 110 MPs.

Labour, meanwhile, will gain 250 to leave them on 450 seats.

The Lib Dems will also see their number of MPs almost treble to 50, according to the poll, while the SNP would slump to just 16 MPs, down from the 48 they won in 2019.

The poll was conducted using the so-called “MRP” method, which uses a bigger than normal sample.

It also uses demographic data to calculate what the result would be on a seat-by-seat basis.

Among the big-name Conservatives set to lose their seats, according to the poll, are Jeremy Hunt, Johnny Mercer and Grant Shapps, while Penny Mordaunt and James Cleverly’s seats are on a knife-edge.

The Focaldata poll echoes a number of such surveys carried out by other pollsters since the campaign started, all of which pointed to huge Labour victories.

However, Focaldata’s chief research officer, James Kanagasooriam, said the final result could be even worse for the Tories because many of the seats they are forecast to win are very close and could end up falling another way.

Senior Tories, including Rishi Sunak, have effectively already conceded defeat by warning voters about the possibility of Labour winning a “super-majority”.

The Conservatives’ campaign has become increasingly negative the closer we get to July 4, but nothing seems to be able to halt the inevitability of Keir Starmer becoming the next prime minister.

Meanwhile, the ongoing Tory betting scandal appears to have scuppered any hopes the party had of a late fightback.