Andy Street is on course to be re-elected mayor of the West Midlands as evidence grows that Labour is being punished for Keir Starmer’s stance on Gaza.
In a much-needed local elections boost for Rishi Sunak, Street is expected to see off the challenge of his Labour rival Richard Parker when the result is announced on Saturday.
Labour had high hopes of finally unseating Street, who was first elected to the role in 2017.
But party sources have conceded that Parker is likely to come up short - thanks in part to a surge in support for independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob, who has run on a pro-Palestine ticket.
One told HuffPost UK: “I think many of our Kashmiri supporters have gone independent in Walsall and inner city Birmingham, and now that the election is first past the post, Andy will win.”
That is a reference to a change to the previous voting system for mayoral elections, which allowed voters to give their second preference to a different candidate.
A Street victory would provide further evidence that Muslim voters are rejecting Labour over Starmer’s refusal to call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.
Analysis by the BBC showed how the party’s vote had plummeted in areas with a high Muslim population.
The Greens have been the main beneficiaries, with the party making major gains in Tyneside and Newcastle.
Although Labour held onto control of Blackburn Council in Lancashire, the party lost eight seats, while independent candidates gained eight.
Phil Riley, the Labour leader on the council, told the BBC: “I’m afraid it was simply because of disquiet about the Gaza war and disquiet about the response of the Labour leadership.”
Meanwhile, Labour also fears that Tory candidate Susan Hall could pull off a major shock by defeating Sadiq Khan in London.
Opinion polls consistently put Khan - who was first elected mayor in 2016 - well in front of his right-wing rival during the campaign.
The result will be announced on Saturday and a Khan campaign source told HuffPost UK “it’s going to be close”.
The source said: “There was less than 5% between us last time.
“On top of this, the Tories rigged the system to make it easier for them to win, bringing in voter ID and first past the post, and fought a dirty campaign. The polls were way out.”