Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, is having just the kind of election night that Democrats feared.
Although Trump has officially won in just two of the seven battleground states — North Carolina and Georgia — he is on the verge of narrow but decisive victories over Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, in the three “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Trump was up by more than 4 points in Wisconsin with 87% of the vote counted, up by more than 3 points in Pennsylvania with 93% of the vote counted, up by 6 points in Michigan with two-thirds of the vote in, and up by more than 3 points in Nevada with 68% of votes in.
If you squint hard at the outstanding votes, you can see a narrow path for Harris. As of about 1am Eastern Time, Wayne County, Michigan, home to Detroit and the largest share of Democratic votes, had still not tallied most of its votes. Harris and Trump were neck-and-neck in Arizona with just over half of votes counted.
But a Trump victory looks very likely.
What’s more, if he wins, he can count on Republican control of the Senate to confirm his nominees to the US Supreme Court and the federal bench.
Maintaining Democratic control of the upper chamber was always going to be an uphill climb, but Democratic Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown’s pre-election polling gave Democrats hope he could hold on despite Trump’s popularity. Brown would end up going down by a roughly four-point margin. Republicans only needed to defeat Brown and win an open seat in West Virginia to deprive Democrats of their 51-seat majority. Independent Dan Osborn’s failure to pull off an upset against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer of Nebraska made Republican control of the Senate official.
Republicans’ Senate majority could still grow. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana is not favoured to win his bid for a fourth term. Democratic senators Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin both trailed their challengers with more than 80% of votes counted.
A Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives remains a real possibility, however. The party needs a net gain of five seats, which is still within reach.
New York state Sen. John Mannion, who unseated Rep. Brandon Williams in New York’s 22nd Congressional District, became the first Democrat of the night to flip a House seat. Democrat Shomari Figures won in Alabama’s new court-ordered 2nd Congressional District, setting the stage for the state to have two Black members of Congress for the first time in its history. And Democrat Cleo Fields won in Louisiana’s new court-ordered 6th Congressional District.
Republican Reps. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania and Anthony D’Esposito also appear to be on the brink of losing their reelection bids. At the same time, several vulnerable incumbent House Democrats, like Pennsylvania Rep. Matt Cartwright, appear likely to lose.