Heard about the ‘African plume’ of hot air that’s set to sweep in later this week, bringing unseasonably sunny weather to the UK?
Well don’t get too excited, because forecasters have dismissed the idea – but there’s no need to cancel your barbecue plans just yet.
Reports of a band of high pressure bringing temperatures as high as 18C are not completely unfounded, according to the Met Office – but the warmer air is in fact coming from the north, rather than the Sahara.
“There’s a lot of talk about an ‘African plume’, but the high pressure building across the UK is in fact crossing the Atlantic and being pushed north, before coming back down, so it’s not coming from Africa or from the continent” forecaster Nicola Maxey told HuffPost UK.
“But it is going to be a fairly fine week, with plenty of sun around and temperatures reaching 17 or 18 degrees by the end of the week in the south, and even across the east of Scotland by mid-week.
“Temperatures are looking slightly cooler as we head towards the weekend, but generally it is going to be fairly fine and settled.”
Reports of an unseasonably warm spring are also somewhat lacking in scientific basis, according to the Met Office, which generally resists predictions spanning any longer than 30 days.
“We have not made any predictions about spring generally, or any seasonal forecasts,” Maxey added.
“Currently, it looks like the high pressure will move out of the way during April, so there will be a mix of unsettled, wet weather and some warmer, drier periods – so pretty typical for the time of year.
“There has also been some speculation about temperatures reaching the mid-20s. We can certainly say that during those warmer, more settled periods we are likely to see temperatures warm up, but again that’s quite typical for April.
“Once you get outside of a month ahead, it’s difficult to even think about trends.”
The most educated guess forecasters can produce outside of that time period comes from looking at global trends, Maxey said:
“You can look at international patterns and speculate about how they might affect the UK, but we are a tiny island in a large body of water, so that can be quite difficult.
“The average temperature for April is around 7.4 degrees, so even eight degrees would be considered above average. And I don’t think anyone would regard that as a heatwave.”
Probably best to keep your big coat to hand.