Russia’s ministry of defence claims to have just defeated a major Ukrainian attack – signalling that Kyiv’s long-awaited counteroffensive may have finally begun.
But, those claims are yet to be verified and Ukraine hasn’t commented. So here’s what we know so far.
What does Russia say?
The Russian defence ministry claims to have brought down a major Ukrainian offensive in Donetsk, at five different points, on Sunday morning.
According to Reuters, this is where Moscow has “long suspected” Ukraine would try to weaken their opposition.
Russia shared a video on the social media platform Telegram which allegedly showed military vehicles under heavy fire in fields.
It claimed this was part of a Ukraine’s “large-scale offensive” using six mechanised and two tank battalions and that Ukraine tried to break through Russian ranks but that it “did not achieve its tasks, it had no success”.
It also said that Ukraine lost 250 troops and 16 tanks in the battle, as well as three infantry fighting vehicles and 21 armoured combat vehicles.
These claims have not been independently verified.
What does Ukraine say?
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously said the counteroffensive was delayed because requested equipment from the West had not yet arrived.
Then on Saturday, he told the Wall Street Journal that his troops were finally ready – but that the counteroffensive could take time and come at a heavy price.
He said: “To be honest, it can go a variety of ways, completely different. But we are going to do it and we are ready.”
An official confirmation that the counterattack has started is not expected though, as sharing such information publicly could give Russia the upper-hand.
Ukraine’s general staff also said in its daily update for Sunday that there were only 29 combat clashes in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
According to Reuters, Ukrainian officials have been discouraging public speculation over the counteroffensive for some time and cracked down on citizens sharing images or footage of air defence systems.
Ukraine’s defence ministry also posted a video on Sunday, which included the phrase: “Plans like silence. There will be no announcements about the beginning.”
Is it likely that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has started?
Professor Michael Clarke, former director of the think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Today programme on Monday that it did look like it had begun.
“My own view is that this offensive really started a couple of weeks ago in the air and drone attacks on both sides probing for rear areas,” he said.
He said there was now an increasing “tempo” of activities, suggesting “certainly something is going on” in several different places, including around the border between the two countries.
Over the last month, there has been a series of drone attacks on Moscow and several attacks from anti-Putin groups on the Western border, although Ukraine denies any involvement.
Prominent Russian military bloggers have also reported heavy fighting on Monday in areas controlled by Russia, including near Bakhmut, Soledar and Vuhledar, although these have not been verified.
Clarke said one would “expect diversionary activity” at this time from Ukrainian forces, which could explain why there is a lot happening at once, or there could be a series of pushes.
He suggested: “Someone in Kyiv has clearly given the orders for a series of local pushes, local offensives.”
However, Clarke added that Kyiv is likely to develop an attack force which stretches to 50km – and that’s a mere fraction of the whole frontline, which is around 1,000km long.
Why is this a big deal?
At the moment, Russia controls at least 18% of Ukrainian land and has illegally annexed four regions. Ukraine has made it clear that it wants to oust all traces of the Russian occupation.
To do so, Kyiv needs to keep the West’s backing and its supply of weapons and funding.
This counteroffensive is so highly-anticipated though, that a lot is riding on it. Ukraine needs to prove it is capable of breaking through Russian ranks (which have dug in over recent months) after receiving huge amounts of support from its allies.