Ukrainians usually mark August 24 with a celebration, to honour its independence from the Soviet Union.
But, exactly six months before this annual festivity, Moscow launched a brutal and unprovoked attack on its European neighbour – an offensive which is still ongoing.
Pundits fear that Russia will use this occasion to hit back at Ukraine. After all, the war is a thinly-veiled attempt to seize control of Ukraine completely, so any celebration of its independence is expected to be brutally squashed.
What is Ukraine’s independence day?
Although it was actually on July 16, 1990, that the Ukraine government announced state sovereignty, August 24 1991 is when Ukraine’s parliament officially vowed to separate itself from the Soviet Union.
On that day, the government adopted the Act of Independence of Ukraine and put up the now-famous yellow and blue flag, which had been banned under the Soviet regime since 1922.
A national referendum on independence followed on December 1, 1991, with more than 92% of those who voted backing Ukrainian independence.
Usually, the Ukrainian president makes a speech in Kyiv to honour the occasion, with state leaders leaving flowers at various monuments.
Last year, Ukraine used the opportunity to march with Nato allies at a time when the country still hoped that it would be able to become a member of the alliance.
But since Russia launched its offensive, Ukraine has withdrawn its efforts to join Nato, partially in a bid to compromise with the Kremlin and bring an end to the war.
Why are people particularly nervous about this year?
August 24 will not only mark 31 years since Ukraine officially separated itself from the Soviet Union, but exactly six months since Russia launched its invasion.
So, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned in his nightly address on Saturday that Moscow could attempt “something particularly ugly, particularly vicious”, but called for civilians not to allow Russia to “spread despondency and fear”.
Mykhailo Podolyak, top advisor to the president, also suggested Russia would want to re-assert itself over Ukraine. He said: “You’ll remember they said they’d march in downtown Kyiv within three days of Kyiv.
“Here we are six months later, having demonstrated how weak Russia is compared to Ukraine. So they’ll want their compensation.”
The Ukrainian National Police has also these fears, saying in a statement: “Our enemy is insidious. It can deliver painful blows precisely on the days of the most important national holiday – the Independence Day of Ukraine.”
The New York Times even expressed concerns that Russia might start using show trials with the Ukrainian prisoners of war, after videos of iron cages being built in the captured city of Mariupol began to circulate on social media.
US intelligence has warned the West that Russia might strike on Wednesday too, particularly targeting civilian infrastructure and government buildings.
The US Embassy in Kyiv issued a security alert and urged US citizens to leave the country.
“The Department of State has information that Russia is stepping up efforts to launch strikes against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and government facilities in the coming days,” it said.
The string of attacks against Russian military targets in Crimea – which Ukraine has not officially taken credit for – may also act as a further incentive for the Kremlin to strike, along with the death of Daria Dugina.
The daughter of a Putin ally, she was killed in a suspected car bomb attack outside of Kyiv last week, although Ukraine has refused to take responsibility.
What steps has Ukraine taken to protect its citizens?
Zelenskyy urged Ukrainians to remain vigilant, while officials are calling for civilians not to gather in major cities ahead of the holiday. Officers are being placed across the country, with civilians urged to pay more attention to air-raid sirens.
Ukraine’s culture ministry has confirmed that there will not be any large public celebrations, and current martial law rules out large public gatherings while the capital city Kyiv has banned all Independence Day festivities.
Instead of the usual Soviet-style celebratory parade, Ukraine’s military has lined the usual route with the Russian military equipment it has seized during the war which civilians have already scratched anti-war messages into.
The military will also conduct private flag-raising ceremonies, and some of the capital’s monuments will be lit up in blue and yellow.
But, curfew has been extended for the entire day in Kharkiv, from 7pm on Tuesday to 7am on Thursday, as the second-largest city in Ukraine is under regular attack from Russia.
During this time, everyone is forbidden from being in public and travelling through the streets.
What has Russia said?
Russia has not officially suggested it will be more aggressive this week, but there is a concern that it is laying the groundwork to excuse any extra offensives.
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has already blamed the killing of Dugina was “prepared and perpetrated by the Ukrainian special services”.
It claimed a Ukrainian citizen Natalya Vovk carried out the murder, alleging she arrived in Russia with her 12-year-old daughter and rented an apartment near where Dugina lived to shadow her.