Vladimir Putin faced a serious threat to his regime over the weekend when the leader of the Wagner Group threatened to overthrow his military.
But, the whole ‘coup’ was over in 24 hours. Russia claims to have exiled Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus, and the main Russian army leaders still seem to be in their posts.
Although it fizzled out very quickly, plenty of people now think the writing is on the wall for the authoritarian Russian president.
It was dubbed the “beginning of the end” for Putin by a former MI6 chief, while the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, called it “a direct challenge to Putin’s authority”. He said that the rebellion has enabled the world to see “cracks emerge that weren’t there before”.
Here’s what you need to know.
What happened?
Prigozhin announced that he was taking action against the Russian ministry of defence on Friday.
He said he was ready to “go all the way” in a mutiny against those leading the war effort in Ukraine, particularly defence minister Sergei Shoigu and head of the military, Valery Gerasimov.
“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” Prigozhin said, as he claimed his Wagner troops had been targeted by Russian military in a missile strike (which the Kremlin’s denied).
In furious rants published on the social media platform Telegram, Prigozhin said the whole Ukraine conflict was just a reason for Shoigu to win more medials – “the ministry of defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president”.
He claimed he had 25,000 troops at his disposal to march on the capital, too.
Although he didn’t directly attack the president, the whole speech seemed to imply Putin was losing his grip on Russia.
His troops then took the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don on Saturday morning – just 60 miles from Ukraine’s border, and where the command centre for Russian forces in Ukraine is based.
The fighters reportedly met no resistance from the locals. Videos of Russians apparently cheering for the mercenaries then started to appear online.
Meanwhile, Putin issued a TV statement, saying Russia’s future was at stake, and that the rebellion was a “stab in the back”.
He accused those causing the trouble of “high treason” and promised there would be “inevitable punishment” – although he didn’t mention Prigozhin once.
Then another armoured Wagner column attacked Voronezh, a city even closer to Moscow, where it came under fire from Russian army helicopters.
The army, police and security started building fortifications to stop Wagner forces approaching Moscow, while also tearing up roads and bridges.
But the Wagner troops stopped their advance only 120 miles from Moscow as Prigozhin orders his troops back to base on Saturday afternoon.
It turns out Belarus’s president and Putin’s close ally, Aleksander Lukashenko, had talked with Prigozhin. The Wagner leader had promised to de-escalate the attempted coup, so Wagner fighters could get security guarantees.
It remains unclear what else the truce entailed, other than Prigozhin’s exile to Belarus.
Even as they pulled out of Rostov, the crowds cheered for them.
Why did the attempted coup even happen?
It’s widely believed that Prigozhin was reacting against the Kremlin’s attempts to gain control over the Wagner group.
Shoigu had tried to make Wagner troops sign up to military contracts with the Russian ministry – a move backed by Putin – but Prigozhin had refused.
He said: “None of Wagner’s fighters is ready to go down the path of shame again. That’s why they will not sign the contracts.”
And, according to the US-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, Prigozhin “likely gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian ministry of defence”.
What do you need to know about Prigozhin?
Prigozhin is the founder and leader of the Wagner paramilitary group, who have taken responsibility for any success in the blood battle in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut. Thousands of Wagner fighters are said to have died there.
The Wagner group were set up in 2014, and technically operate outside of Russian law because private military contractors are forbidden in Russia.
Yet, the Kremlin did not stop them because they helped expand Russia’s international influence. For instance, they went abroad and helped Bashar Al-Assad in Syria suppress rebel uprisings.
A previous criminal linked to organised crime in the 1980s, Prigozhin spent years behind bars. He also has close links with the Russian president, and was once known as Putin’s chef because his food companies catered to the Kremlin.
Once Wagner started to make headway during the war in Ukraine, Prigozhin wanted the credit for it and brought his underground onto the surface. But the Kremlin continued to keep the mercenaries at arm’s length.
Prigozhin has always stopped short of insulting the president directly, but regularly accused the Kremlin of withholding ammunition from his troops and saying the military chiefs are guilty of “treason” even before launching his attempted coup.
What does this failed coup mean for Putin?
Although the coup attempt was unsuccessful, it has seriously undermined Putin’s authority.
Not only did the fighters manage to get within 120 miles of Moscow, but there needed to be intervention from another head of state for a resolution to be reached.
Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor in chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, told the BBC that Putin also “looks weaker” by reportedly not pressing charges against the fighters and Prigozhin.
After all, he did call the rebellion “a criminal adventure”, and then accuse the fighters of “blackmail and terrorism” in his Saturday morning TV address.
He reportedly then dropped all criminal charges against Wagner, while his press secretary later they hadn’t broken the criminal code.
However, the situation is still unclear as Russian state-owned newswire Ria Novosti reported on Monday that the “criminal case against Prigozhin has not been terminated”.
Still, it’s a tense time for Putin. His presidential term runs out next year and, though he’s been president or prime minister for the past 23 years, he’s never had a challenge to his authority like this before.
It’s worth remembering that Russia has faced economic problems since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine last year. The general public have also experienced drone attacks in Moscow and shelling by the borders from anti-Putin Russian groups in recent weeks – and that was all before Saturday’s armed uprising.
What does this mean for the war in Ukraine?
This does not mean the war is over – but it shows that the conflict is becoming a source of major tension within Russia (and Putin, who spearheaded it).
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy took the opportunity of the failed coup to speak out against Russia – and Putin.
He said: “Today the world saw that Russia’s bosses do not control anything.
“In one day, they lost several of their million-plus cities and showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs and anyone else how easy it is to capture Russian cities and, probably, weapons arsenals.”
Zelenskyy swapped to Russian at this point in his address on Saturday, in an apparent address to the Russian general public.
He claimed Putin was now in hiding, adding: “The longer he can run between his bunkers, the more you will all lose, all of those who are connected with Russia.”
Zelenskyy also called for the West to supply Ukraine with more weapons, amid speculation the country could use the crisis to strike against Russia.
The Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu did make his first appearance since the attempted coup on Monday, visiting troops fighting in Ukraine.
However, there’s been no indication of where or when the image was taken.
What happens next?
No one knows – and there are still a lot of questions to be answered.
1. Where is Prigozhin?
2. Where is Putin?
3. How did the two rivals strike a deal?
4. What will Putin – or Prigozhin – do next?
5. How much has this rocked Russia’s confidence in Putin?
British government sources told The Times that they have been expecting more instability because of the war, but “this could be chapter one of something new.”
Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, also former chief of the defence staff, told Times Radio that the West risk “woefully underestimating Russia”.
He explained: “Despite the weakened state, arguably of Putin, we’re in for a long haul here. And that actually is the worst of all worlds for the West.”
He suggested that there should have been victory for the Western-backed Ukraine last year, suggesting its counteroffensive is struggling.
Meanwhile, founder of the analysis project R.Politik, Tatiana Stanovaya, tweeted that Prigozhin’s actions arose out of “desperation”.
She added: “And no, Putin doesn’t need Wagner or Prigozhin. He can manage with his own forces. He’s now certainly convinced of that.”