Tensions between the United States and Iran have soared in recent weeks, with Washington dispatching warships and bombers around the Persian Gulf and Tehran announcing it will break the uranium stockpile limit set by its nuclear deal with world powers.
On Thursday, tensions escalated further when Iran’s Revolutionary Guards shot down a US drone.
Late on Monday, the US revealed it was deploying around 1,000 more troops to the Middle East for defensive purposes, amid concerns of a mounting threat from Iran.
Earlier that day, a spokesman for Iran’s atomic agency said the country would breach the country’s stockpile limit on 27 June. He also warned that Iran could enrich uranium up to 20% - just a step away from weapons-grade levels.
The announcement, timed for a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, puts more pressure on Europe to come up with new terms for Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal.
The deal has steadily unravelled since the Trump administration pulled America out of the accord last year and re-imposed tough economic sanctions on Iran, deeply cutting into its sale of crude oil abroad and sending its economy into free-fall.
Europe so far has been unable to offer Iran a way around the US sanctions. Downing Street said “all options” would be examined if Iran breached the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal.
The development comes in the wake of apparent attacks on oil tankers last week in the Middle East, assaults that Washington has blamed on Iran.
While Iran has denied being involved, it has used mines in the past against commercial traffic around the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil passes.
On Monday a senior Iranian security official said Tehran was responsible for security in the Gulf and called on US forces to leave the region.
“We have always said we guarantee the security of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz,” the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, was quoted as saying by the state broadcaster IRIB.
“We repeat our stance and call on US forces to finish their presence in the region as they are the main source of crisis and instability.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Major General Mohammad Baqeri was quoted as saying by Fars news agency: “Regarding the new incidents in the Persian Gulf... if the Islamic Republic of Iran decides to block exports of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, it is militarily strong enough to do that fully and publicly.”
What is behind the tensions?
At the beginning of May, John Bolton, the White House national security adviser, announced the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and a bomber task force in response to “a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings,” without providing details. He threatened “unrelenting force” in response to any attack.
A few days later the US said it would move a Patriot missile battery into the Middle East to counter threats from Iran.
The oil tankers
On June 13, two oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz were hit in an alleged assault, leaving one ablaze and adrift. Some 44 sailors were evacuated from both vessels and the US Navy rushed to assist.
The US has blamed Iran for the suspected attacks on the vessels, denouncing what it called a campaign of “escalating tensions”.
The US alleges Iran used limpet mines to target the tankers, pointing to black-and-white footage it captured which American officials describe as Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops removing an unexploded mine from the Japanese-operated tanker Kokuka Courageous.
The Japanese tanker’s crew members described “flying objects” as having targeted the vessel, seemingly contradicting the assertion that limpet mines were used.
The incidents caused oil prices to soar amid heightened fears of a conflict in the region causing major disruption to world supplies.
Tehran strongly denies the claims.
Nuclear tensions
Early last month, Iran vowed to enrich its uranium stockpile closer to weapons-grade levels, starting on July 7, if world powers fail to negotiate new terms for its nuclear deal. The US responded by imposing sanctions on Iran’s metal industry.
The EU urged Iran to respect the nuclear deal and says it plans to continue trading with the country despite US sanctions. Trump says he would like Iran’s leaders to “call me.”
By the middle of the month, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced “no one is seeking war,” but that it wouldn’t be difficult for Iran to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels.
On May 20, semi-official media in Iran reported that it has quadrupled its production of low-enriched uranium, which is used for civilian applications but not nuclear weapons. Iran is allowed to enrich uranium to the low level of 3.67%, but increased production could lead it to exceed the stockpile limits in the nuclear deal.
On Monday the country said it would breach internationally agreed curbs on its stock of low-enriched uranium in 10 days – but added that the European nations could still save a nuclear deal that sets those limits.
The deal seeks to head off any pathway to an Iranian nuclear bomb in return for the removal of most international sanctions.
The accord requires Iran to curb its uranium enrichment capacity, capping Iran’s stock of low-enriched uranium at 300 kg of uranium hexafluoride enriched to 3.67 percent or its equivalent for 15 years.
A series of more intrusive UN inspections under the deal have verified that Iran has been meeting its commitments.
Urging European signatories to hasten efforts to salvage the accord, President Hassan Rouhani said its collapse would not be in the interests of the region or the world.
“It’s a crucial moment, and France can still work with other signatories of the deal and play an historic role to save the deal in this very short time,” Rouhani was quoted as saying during a meeting with France’s new ambassador in Iran.
Tensions with Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has joined the US in accusing Iran of being behind the attacks on two oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
In an interview with the Arabic-language newspaper Asharq al-Awsat, Prince Mohammed said Iran disrespected the visit to Tehran by the Japanese prime minister last week and responded to his diplomatic efforts to reduce regional tensions by attacking the two tankers.
But the crown prince offered no evidence to back up his allegation.
In similar recent attacks, four oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates were apparently targeted in acts of sabotage, which US officials have blamed on Iran.
Two of those vessels belonged to Saudi Arabia.
Days later, Iranian-allied Yemeni rebels claimed they were behind a drone attack on a Saudi oil pipeline.
In his first public comments since the start of these incidents, the powerful Saudi prince, who is also defence minister and oversees all major levers of power in the country, said the attacks “confirm the importance of our demands of the international community to take a decisive stance” against Iran’s behaviour.
“The kingdom does not seek war in the region, but we will not hesitate to deal with any threat to our people, sovereignty and vital interests,” he said.
He also touted US-Saudi relations as “essential to achieving regional security and stability”.
Last month, an English-language Saudi newspaper close to the palace had called for the US to launch “surgical” strikes against Iran in retaliation for the earlier vessel and pipeline attacks.
Saudi Arabia accuses Iran of arming Yemeni rebels known as Houthis, who claimed responsibility for the pipeline attack and a subsequent missile strike on a Saudi airport that wounded 26 passengers.
Saudi Arabia has been at war against the Houthis in Yemen since early 2015.
“The choice before Iran is clear. Do you want to be a normal state with a constructive role in the international community or do you want to be a rogue state?” the crown prince was quoted as saying.