Wes Streeting is a very clever man.
As one of the government’s best communicators, the health secretary knows that when he speaks, people tend to listen.
So when he decided to make an intervention on fellow Labour MP Kim Leadbeater’s Assisted Dying Bill this week, he knew that it would make waves.
Streeting, who has already said he intends to vote against the bill, told Times Radio: “It would be a big change. There would be resource implications for doing it. And those choices would come at the expense of other choices.”
His message was clear: passing the bill would cost money, and that would have to come at the expense of frontline NHS services.
Leadbeater told HuffPost UK that she found Streeting’s comments “upsetting”, especially since the government’s official position is to remain neutral on the legislation.
“It’s a difficult balance for people,” she said. “I was disappointed that he made those comments before he saw the bill. But everyone is entitled to their view.”
Others are less sanguine about Streeting’s intervention, however.
Labour peer and former minister Baroness Hodge said: “I’m a great Wes Streeting fan but I think on this issue he should do what the Cabinet Secretary said and just hold fire a little bit.”
On his specific suggestion that the bill could see the NHS starved of resources, she said: “If you look at the NHS budget, most of it goes on the last six months of life.
“To argue that this is going to cost extra – I mean I haven’t done the arithmetic on it – sounds to me a bit daft.”
Another Labour grandee, former deputy leader Baroness Harman, told the Electoral Dysfunction podcast that Streeting had “crossed the line” by speaking out.
“He should not have said how he was going to vote, because that breaches neutrality and sends a signal,” she said.
Several MPs HuffPost UK has spoken to admitted privately that Streeting’s intervention could lead to previously-undecided colleagues opting to vote against the bill.
One newly-elected Labour MP said: “Wes’s comments will help a lot of us make up our minds, I think. I was already pretty sceptical about the bill, but what he said has made me much more likely to vote against.”
A senior Tory MP said: “When Wes said there will have to be NHS cuts, that probably killed the bill stone dead.”
But Lib Dem MP Tom Gordon, who is a supporter of the bill, said Streeting’s remarks could actually have the opposite effect.
“A lot of Labour MPs feel let down by Wes,” he said. “They think he’s gone too far and that’s made them more determined to support the bill.”
The debate around the issue has already been lengthy and intense, despite the fact that the bill itself was only published last Monday night.
If passed, it would allow terminally ill adults who have less than six months to die if they wish.
They would have to be over the age of 18, be registered with a GP for at least a year, have the mental capacity to make a clear choice and express a “clear, settled and informed” wish to die without any coercion.
Two independent doctors and a High Court judge would also have to confirm the person is eligible for assisted dying.
“When Wes said there will have to be NHS cuts, that probably killed the bill stone dead”
The all-important Commons vote on the second reading of the bill takes place on November 29.
While no one is expecting a repeat of the last time MPs voted on the issue nine years ago, when Rob Marris’ private member’s bill was resoundingly defeated by 330 to 118, there is a growing feeling that it could be narrowly defeated.
One former Tory cabinet minister said: “There’s an expectation that a lot of the new Labour MPs will vote for it, but I don’t think that’s right.
“A lot of colleagues are also concerned about the lack of parliamentary time being given to it.”
The debate on November 29 is only scheduled to last five hours, which Conservative backbencher Alec Shelbrooke told HuffPost UK was nowhere near enough for an issue of such importance.
The Wetherby and Easingwold MP asked Keir Starmer at PMQs on Wednesday for the government to make available two days of parliamentary time - 16 hours in total - for the bill to be debated. He declined.
Shelbrooke said: “I am open minded but without extra floor debate I would not be able to give this a second reading.”
But Leadbeater said those with concerns should back the bill at the end of the month, after which there will still be a lengthy parliamentary process for it to be thoroughly debated.
“Once we get it through on November 29 - if we do - we’ve then got committee stage, report stage, third reading and then it goes to the Lords, so that is a six month process,” she said.
“Just because the debate is not happening on the floor of the House doesn’t mean it’s not happening at all.”
She also pointed out that MPs have been able to take part in drop-in events in parliament, where those on both sides of the argument have been setting out their case.
“I’ve had a number of messages from colleagues saying they had gone through the bill and will now be voting for it,” Leadbeater said.
“You’ve got people in the middle who looking at the bill and really doing the research, speaking to constituents, having round tables and speaking to various organisations.
“But I also respect those who say they won’t be voting for it. Whatever happens with the bill, and I desperately hope it passes, I hope it leads to a wider debate on the issue. There are a lot of positives that can come out of it.”
Views on the issue among the public appear to be just as mixed as they are in parliament.
A poll by Savanta found that 46% support assisted dying for non-terminal degenerative diseases, compared to 20% who are opposed.
However, 61% said they were concerned that if the bill passed, terminally ill people might be pressured into taking their lives due to cost or inconvencience.
Emma Levin, associate director at Savanta said: “Our polling suggests there are significant levels of support among the UK public for the legalisation of assisted dying - in the abstract.
“That being said, there continues to be widespread concern that people could be pressured into taking their own life prematurely. Campaigners for the legalisation of assisted dying will need to convince the public of the safeguards put in place to stop this happening.”
The vote in two weeks’ time is set to be one of the most significant of this or any parliament.
It is impossible to predict how it will go, but the pressure is on the bill’s supporters to convince the sceptics that it is an idea whose time has come.