
Labour announced it would be cutting £5 billion from the welfare bill this week in a clampdown on the ballooning cost of benefits.
The move is the central part of major reforms to the whole welfare system.
Work and pensions secretary Liz Kendall told MPs that the current set-up was “failing the very people it is supposed to help and holding our country back”.
The government will be narrowing eligibility criteria for personal independence payments (PIP) so only the most disabled people will receive it – and an estimated one million will lose out on the payment.
Universal Credit payments for those unfit to work will be halved from £97 to £47 a week for new claimants, too.
But there is still a lack of transparency around the move. Here’s a look at a few of the major questions still hanging over the government.
1. Why is Labour doing it now?
Kendall said spending on sickness and disability benefits had risen by £20bn since the pandemic, and would rise by another £18bn by the next election – taking the overall bill to £70bn a year.
She told the Commons: “This is a significant reform package that is expected to save over £5 billion in 2029/30.”
The savings come as a period of economic gloom and stagnant growth hangs over the country, but the government deny that the move was down to financial pressures.
Work and pensions minster Stephen Timms told Sky News: “These changes needed to be made anyway. We were spending £12bn on PIP the year before the pandemic five years ago, this year we’re going to be spending £22bn – and it will be heading up to well over £30bn in the next five years if something wasn’t done.
“So I think whatever the fiscal situation, we would need to make these changes.”
The changes were not mentioned in Labour’s election manifesto last year, though.
It’s also deeply unpopular and comes after a series of other controversial moves, including removing winter fuel payments from 10 million pensioners.
Left-wing critics have said the welfare cuts are not in line with Labour values, and health secretary Wes Streeting has even had to deny that the party is “changing into the Tories”.
2. Where is the impact assessment?
The government has delayed the publication of a document which would outline exactly how these cuts will impact the public until Rachel Reeves delivers the spring statement next week.
It’s therefore not clear how much worse off people will be, where exactly the £5bn of savings are coming from and who will be hit the hardest.
Labour has only said “hundreds of thousands” of people will be affected, and admitted it will be a “substantial number” without disclosing any specifics.
Timms bizarrely told LBC that the government cannot reveal these details now because they are “market sensitive”.
3. Will the government come back for more?
While £5bn of savings may sound like a lot, it is actually small-fry in comparison to the overall welfare system which is currently costing the taxpayer £65bn per year.
The overall cost is also set to increase to £100bn within the next five years – which is why the Conservatives claim more benefits cuts are needed.
Timms told Times Radio that he believes the “bold action” the government took this week is “sustainable” – but notably refused to rule out further cuts.
He said: “Who knows what will happen in the next sort of five years.”
4. Just how will Labour backbenchers respond?
A few of Keir Starmer’s own MPs stood up to protest the reforms in the Commons yesterday.
Clive Lewis said his constituents in Norwich South “do not think this is the kind of action that a Labour government takes”.
Debbie Abrahams, a Labour MP and chair of the work and pensions select committee, said: “There are alternative, more compassionate ways to balance the books rather than on the back of sick and disabled people.”
As these reforms will need primary legislation to bring them into being, MPs will vote on them before they formally pass into law - teeing up a potential backbench Labour rebellion.
Labour has a huge Commons majority in the Commons and the Tories are likely to support the government in any vote, so there is no chance of the cuts being blocked by parliament.
But it remains unclear just how much of a rebellion there may be among the Labour backbenchers who do not want to vote with the government – and just how the government may punish anyone who steps out of line.