A senior Labour MP is calling for a probe into “misleading” figures used by ministers to slap down strikers.
Former minister Angela Eagle is attempting to shed light on statistics Rishi Sunak has deployed to argue against public sector pay rises.
Ministers claim that public sector pay increases demanded by trade unions would cost £28 billion - or £1,000 for every UK household.
However, Dame Angela argues the figure is “inaccurate” and that the government is using “deliberately inflated figures”.
“I am concerned that government ministers are using misleading statistics publicly regarding the cost of pay rises, and believe it is critical that figures used are accurate,” she wrote.
Eagle has written to Sir Robert Chote, chair of the UK Statistics Authority, asking him to verify the figures.
The BBC’s Reality Check team has also questioned the figures, suggesting they look “too high” in the current dispute.
Similarly, the Institute for Fiscal Studies [IFS] has also pointed out inconsistencies.
Eagle argues that these calculations do not incorporate that spending plans were set last autumn on the assumption of 2-3% pay awards - which are “already built in”.
Where Did The Government Figures Come From?
Taking the public sector pay bill for 2021-22 of £233 billion.
Increasing that by around 5% to reflect pay deals for 2022-23, which gives a figure of £245 billion
Taking 11% of that figure reflecting the most recent CPI inflation figure for October.
That brings the total to £27 billion - another £1 billion comes from “assumptions on pay drift and workforce growth”.
That £28 billion is then divided by the 28 million households in the UK, giving the £1,000 per household.
She also pointed out that any pay increase would be in part returned to the Treasury in the form of higher tax payments, reducing the cost of an increase.
Eagle also said the £1,000 per household claim assumes that pay increases would be funded solely through taxes paid by “ordinary” households – disregarding the use of other avenues or taxation such as from businesses.
“It also assumes that taxes such as income tax are levied equally across households, and therefore increases would have a uniform effect which we know not to be the case,” Eagle said.
“What I’m not going to do is ask ordinary families up and down the country to pay an extra £1,000 a year to meet the pay demands of the union bosses.”
- Prime minister Rishi Sunak
Asked to comment, a Treasury spokesperson repeated the figures saying: “It would cost £28 billion to increase all public sector workers’ pay by inflation – this would illustratively cost each household in the UK around £1,000.”
Sources stressed it was a legitimate calculation and all the workings out had been published in response to a parliamentary question.
They also said public sector workers will receive the highest pay uplift in nearly twenty years.
“These pay awards are above the amount that was budgeted for and as a result has a knock-on consequence for next year’s pay assumptions,” the source said.